Monday, December 03, 2007
China moves on Iran: A reaction to Putin?
The Financial Times is reporting that China has edged off its policy of opposing new economic sanctions against Iran.
China has for the first time indicated clear support for a new package of United Nations sanctions against Iran, breaking months of deadlock inside the UN security council over how to respond to Tehran’s nuclear programme.
In a move that will boost expectations in western capitals that a new UN sanctions resolution could be agreed within weeks, Beijing signalled over the weekend that it was prepared to back measures that will hit Iran’s banking and business sector, while also prohibiting more senior Iranians from travelling abroad.
What made China move "over the weekend"? I did some free association on the treadmill this morning, and the oxygen deprivation made me wonder whether China might be increasingly worried about Russia. Last week, if you recall, Russia released fuel for Iran's heavy water reactor, which drove some speculation from Stratfor and others that Russia had decided that a nuclear Iran was less troubling than a United States undistracted by Iran. Then, last night I absentmindedly watched the CNN special report "Czar Putin," which puts the Vladinator's huge domestic popularity into a larger picture of surging Russian nationalism.
Well, if the United States, the European Union, and CNN are worried that Putin's Russia will increasingly flex geopolitical muscles at the expense of its neighbors, Beijing is not going to miss the point. China may want to maintain good relations with Iran for no end of economic reasons, but if the price is a Russian breakout into the Persian Gulf even the Chinese might think it is too expensive. The last thing the world needs is a nuclear Iran with even a hint of a Russian security guarantee, and the Chinese know it.
5 Comments:
By 
, at
Mon Dec 03, 02:41:00 PM:
China's economic successes have put it into a curious position.
1) Suprisingly, China needs OIL to keep the wheels of industry moving, as many other industrialized Western nations do
2) And where in the world does MOST of the exportable oil come from? Somewhere in the Middle of Something or other?
3) Dang that oil dependency thing. China subsidizes the price of gasoline at the pump in China, because most Chinese (and Chinese business, i.e. trucking, etc) cannot afford the present world price of refined oil (what US consumers are paying now). They pay for that through a trade surplus they currently have with several countries, including one that is near and dear to most Tigerhawk fans, the US of A.
4) Not only does the present high worldwide price cost China money is price supports, it also costs them in a slowing world economy and the purchasing power of the dollar, and that big export market, the US.
5) And lastly, what has Vladimir Putin done for China lately, compared to the trade surplus that China runs with the US? China has known, and now realizes once again, that their prosperity and continued growth is linked to the US (for good or ill) and that what is good or bad for the US is likewise good or bad for China.
I'm sure they resent that on some level, but they are pretty much hardheaded realists when is comes to economics and money.
This would, of course, interfer with the Lou Dobbs/Ron Paul politico-economic narrative of what's wrong with the US, but I don't drink their flavor of Kool-aid anyways.
-David
By , at
Mon Dec 03, 05:45:00 PM:
Interesting how History repeats itself.
"China began developing nuclear weapons in the late 1950s with substantial Soviet assistance. Before 1960 direct Soviet military assistance had included the provision of advisors and a vast variety of equipment. Of the assistance provided, most significant to China's future strategic nuclear capability were an experimental nuclear reactor, facilities for processing uranium, a cyclotron, and some equipment for a gaseous diffusions plant.
When Sino-Soviet relations cooled in the late 1950s and early 1960s, the Soviet Union withheld plans and data for an atomic bomb, abrogated the agreement on transferring defense technology, and began the withdrawal of Soviet advisers in 1960. Despite the termination of Soviet assistance, China committed itself to continue nuclear weapons development to break "the superpowers' monopoly on nuclear weapons," to ensure Chinese security against the Soviet and United States threats, and to increase Chinese prestige and power internationally."
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/nuke/index.html
Statement of the Government of the People's Republic of China, October 16, 1964:
"...The atomic bomb is a paper tiger. This famous statement by Chairman Mao Tse-tung is known to all. This was our view in the past and this is still our view at present. China is developing nuclear weapons not because it believes in their omnipotence nor because it plans to use them. Oil the contrary, in developing nuclear weapons, China's aim is to break the nuclear monopoly of the nuclear powers and to eliminate nuclear weapons...
The Chinese Government will, as always, exert every effort to promote, through international consultations, the realization of the lofty aim of complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons. Until that day comes, the Chinese Government and people will firmly and unswervingly follow their own path to strengthen their national defence, defend their motherland and safeguard world peace."
http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/1964china-bomb.html
By , at
Mon Dec 03, 08:58:00 PM:
Meanwhile in Moscow...
"Iran’s newly-appointed top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili came to Moscow Monday night for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader is going to persuade the Iranian Secretary of Supreme Security Council to at least pretend that his country is ready to meet the international community halfway. The UN Security Council may come forward with a new resolution this week with another series of sanctions against Tehran. Moscow is going to try to block them but it will not succeed in these efforts if Iran's stance is still unbending"
http://www.kommersant.com/p832102/Iran_Nuclear_UN_Russia
By , at
Tue Dec 04, 07:51:00 PM:
There's a lot going on behind the scenes at the moment. The NIE report release is just a blizard of a snow job.
The Israeli attack in Syria seemed to have moved the furniture around a bit.
BTW Of course the Iranian mullahs want a nuclear weapon and are trying to get one. They may have backed off a bit when the US invaded Iraq - scary! But their stated intent is on record. Good grief, even the Mad Gaffer of Libya had a program
By 
Viking Kaj, at
Wed Dec 05, 05:07:00 PM:
If Russia wanted Iran to have the bomb they could just give them one. I don't think that is likely to happen too soon, especially with all that is going on in Chechnya. But you never know, if the Middle East destabilizes suddenly Russian oil is worth a lot more.
Finally, I'll just remind everyone that the most likely place for the bomb to be used is between India and Pakistan, and I don't see a lot of controls there. Does this mean that we are interested in not seeing the bomb used, or only interested in not seeing the bomb used where there is oil.
