Tuesday, January 02, 2007
Signals?
Stratfor has just published two seemingly unrelated "situation reports". The first:
The U.S. Treasury Department is reviewing a recommendation that the embargo on sending civil aircraft spare parts to Iran be lifted, Fars News Agency reported. Through the deal, parts for Shah-era American-built planes, as well as General Electric engines on Airbus aircraft, would be shipped to third countries for repairs.
The second:
U.S.-led forces in Iraq will likely launch a limited offensive around Jan. 5 against Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army, Reuters reported, citing senior Iraqi officials. A Pentagon report issued in December calls the Mehdi Army the biggest threat to Iraqi security.
I wonder if these two separate but simultaneous reports are, in fact, entirely unrelated.
There is negotiation going on between the United States and Iran. The trick is to understand the idioms used in the conversation, and to distinguish them from bureaucratic coincidence.
8 Comments:
By 
D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Jan 02, 06:11:00 PM:
Subj: Aviation parts for Iran
In the past, despite the embargo, the U.S. government occasionally and quietly approved on a case-by-case basis the shipment of spare parts for American-made commercial airliners to Iran. The U.S. government didn't want the American-made planes to fall out of the sky with civilian passengers on them. In practice, the U.S. government usually granted such permission only to the manufacturer of the planes and to certain manufacturers of major components. The government typically refused to grant an export license to other suppliers.
The latest deal would allow the servicing and supplying of parts for American-made engines on a limited number of Iran Air jets produced by Europe's Airbus. The engines on those planes are in need of immediate overhaul.
The plan has more to do with safety issues and with European pressure than with American-Iranian relations.
Talking about the U.S. and Iran, the Fars news agency reported, "The cooperation appears to be the first between the two countries in the aviation sector since the Iranian Revolution, when bilateral ties were cut and Washington placed trade sanctions on Tehran."
That is incorrect. The cooperation is just the first deal of this type to receive any publicity.
By TigerHawk, at
Tue Jan 02, 06:29:00 PM:
Great comment, but it invites a second order question: Why is it getting publicity this time? Is that just random, or does somebody believe there is value to be gained from pushing it into print? Why would the Iranian side want to publicize this? Perhaps they feel under some pressure to signal to their own people that they can, in fact, work with the United States. Thoughts?
By William, at
Tue Jan 02, 07:15:00 PM:
God bless Iraq if they really are going after the Sadrists, but I do not have high expectations, even if the operation does go through- not only have they failed several times in the past, Saddam's execution itself showed clear signs of being infiltrated by, well, Sadrists, which shows an embarrassing extent of Sadrist infiltration in the Iraqi government.
As for Iran, that would be a good piece of dealing were Bush to have cut such a deal, but as DEC pointed out, such is not necessarily the case.
Nonetheless, if the Maliki government goes ahead and crushes the Mahdi army, and if Iran does not raise hell about it, I will assume otherwise and be very impressed. Until then this administration's record prevents me from being at all optimistic.
Another interesting Iran development worth noting- the establishment (the other rightists) in Iran doesn't seem to like the President. The state controlled (Khameini, Supreme Leader controlled) media is hosting ardent critics of the nuclear program and allowing them to speak. This is a huge development because whereas it does not necessarily mean we can make democracy win, we can probably make extremism (the President) lose by pushing hard on Iran. The more conservative rightists might just oust him if they really see him as an enemy and not a friend and they think that they could lose economically by standing by him.
Link- http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/01/world/middleeast/01tehran.html
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Jan 02, 07:35:00 PM:
TH: "Why would the Iranian side want to publicize this?"
My guess: Someone wants to point up the limited impact of embargoes.
In the case of ordinary consumer goods, Iranians already know one thing: Where you have an embargo, you can find 10,000 smugglers.
However, parts for commercial airliners are a different matter. Suppliers in the commercial aviation industry talk to each other a lot. Many will not hestitate to contact government authorities over the slightest suspicion. Key components have easily traceable serial numbers, etc. The "chain of custody" of any item is important.
By K. Pablo, at
Tue Jan 02, 10:28:00 PM:
Could be the overture to a diplomatic effort. Remember these are an intricate dance of many steps. The last such (ultimately unsuccessful) effort by the Clinton Administration consisted of:
1.) liberalizing visas,
2.) cultural exchanges, including wrestling teams,
3.) putting the Muhahideen e-Khalq on the terrorism list,
4.) taking Iran off the counternarcotics list,
5.) allowing the sale of food and medicine,
6.) agreeing to ILSA waivers,
7.) sending Albright to the "Six Plus Two" talks on Afghanistan in hopes of meeting her Iranian opposite number there,
8.) Clinton's near-apology at the Millenium Evening dinner, and
9.) allowing the sale of spare parts for Boeing aircraft.
I think we can't look at any one element such as this in isolation; in order to read this particular set of tea leaves we definitely need to resort to a "preponderance of evidence" standard.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Jan 02, 10:39:00 PM:
K. Pablo"...allowing the sale of spare parts for Boeing aircraft."
Yes, Clinton allowed it. Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush did, too.
By 
, at
Wed Jan 03, 02:08:00 AM:
The proof is in the pudding. I would not trust the Iranian Gov. as far as I can throw them. Sadr & group maybe open game as they are Shia Arab & the Iran Mully Bosses are Shia Persian. A most unlikey group of a "Band of Brothers" as ever seen. The Persians think they created history and look down on the Arabs who also think they created history and feel that their " Arab cousins" in the the south of Iran don't get a "fair deal"
If a attack is going on in Jan. why is it in the media? This is all Bush's fault if they betray each other or a CIA plot that will be told by Bob Woodward after Mookie's sad passing.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Wed Jan 03, 08:05:00 AM:
In the case of spare parts for Iran, I will leave the study of tea leaves to others. I am simplying trying to provide the backstory of the Fars News Agency report to help TH readers reach intelligent conclusions.
My core business is the export of aircraft spare parts. My primary customers are overseas air forces. My secondary customers are overseas airlines. My staff tracks spare parts requirements around the world.
