Monday, October 02, 2006
"Nasrallah's Malaise"
Via Michael Totten, an interesting op-ed piece that supports the view of those of us who believe that Israel made actual progress in its recent fighting with Hezbollah, even if it did not live up to the hopes of those who believed that the IDF would drive its enemies before them and hear the lamentations of their women:
There are already signs that Hizballah has started moving its military equipment from the South toward the Lebanese Biqa. In other words, Nasrallah understands that the South has ceased to be “Hizballahstan” and he is conceding the role that he had taken upon himself in the past, to serve as the guardian of Lebanon’s border.
Moreover, Nasrallah fears that under these circumstances, he stands to lose control over portions of the Shiite community. Indeed, there is growing evidence of disaffection with Hizballah, and reservations on the part of some of the Shiite middle class, and among the local village leaderships, about the disaster visited upon them by Nasrallah’s belligerent adventurism. Nasrallah’s promises to provide generous and speedy compensation to the thousands of families who lost their homes are not being realized. So far, only a few hundred families have received downpayments on the $12,000 each is supposed to receive to cover a year’s rent pending the rehabilitation of their permanent homes. At least 30,000 families, most of them Shiite, are expecting funds from Nasrallah’s “Construction Jihad” organization—a huge financial burden even for Iran...
I wish I knew enough about the region to know whether author Ehud Yaari's perspective is a valid one, but it certainly matches up well with the view we have taken on this blog, that Israel's "defeat" reflects the deflation of unreasonably high expectations than underlying reality.
5 Comments:
By 
, at
Tue Oct 03, 12:59:00 AM:
South Lebanon is now occupied by the Lebanese army and the UN. This is probably the best result Israel could have hoped for. And probably what they DID hope for going in to the war.
Furthermore, the Hamas government was humiliated to the point where they actuall ADMITTED FAULT, an event unheard of in Middle East politics since at least the Pharoh finally giving in to Moses. The Hamas promptly lost power.
In other words, Israel probably achieved 100% of their REAL objectives.
By , at
Tue Oct 03, 10:35:00 AM:
By 
Cardinalpark, at
Tue Oct 03, 11:12:00 AM:
Investors are certainly not acting as though Israel lost. Since the Tel Aviv market bottomed on 7/13 at 766, the market has rallied by 11% to just under 850 today. That's 11% in about 10 weeks. So investment confidence in Israel has skyrocketed as measured by the Tel Aviv 100.
Maybe Nasrallah had a short on!
Look, he's depressed because he is moving from hut to hut, unable to lever his best asset, which is his charisma. It has dawned on him that his objective of pushing Israel into the sea is unachievable. The Sunni Arabs opposed him throughout Arabia. His erstwhile allies fed him to the wolves, but did not come to his aid in any meaningful way. He was their tool.
It is a very poor victory speech to say, hah, I'm alive! His rhetoric about "crushing Israel" rings hollow. His delusion, and the delusion of those who won't accept Israel's existence, has undone him.
4 years after Egypt made one last effort (in 1973) to destroy Israel, Sadat went to Jerusalem and made a deal.
Perhaps the remnants have suffered enough to conclude the need to as well.
By Georg Felis, at
Tue Oct 03, 06:07:00 PM:
When I first saw Hizbollah handing out cash money to the people who had their houses bombed, I suspected their end was near. Think about it. Every person they pay off will generate a hundred people with their hand out, looking for that magic free money. Everybody who gets a thousand bucks will be resented by those who get only five hundred, and will resent in kind those who received more.
By , at
Wed Oct 04, 12:27:00 AM:
It might be worthwhile to take another look at the "failure" of the IAF bombing campaign. Something strategic happened, and damage assessment won't begin to explain it.
Larry
San Diego
