Wednesday, September 20, 2006
On dealing with Iran
Michael Rubin walks his readers, step by step, through the Islamic Republic's history of contempt for diplomacy from the embassy seizure forward. Some of his examples are the normal, workaday lies that all diplomats tell, but the strong overall impression is that Iran does not negotiate in good faith. The troubling conclusion is that diplomacy that is long on incentives and short on verification and coercion will not secure the region or the West against the development of nuclear weapons. The question is, will the West's reluctance to coerce Iran push it into wishfully thinking that diplomacy with the Islamic Republic will be different this time?
1 Comments:
By 
skipsailing, at
Wed Sep 20, 11:11:00 AM:
Once again the President is attempting to seperate the people from the regime that oppresses them. I recall the statements concerning the differences between the Iraqis and Saddam.
This is an important step. He made it clear that the Iranians aren't the problem but that their government is.
If I were an iranian bureaucrat I'd look at the similarities in these speeches and become gravely concerned.
We won't hear flowery talk about being welcomed as liberators this time. This time, if push comes to shove, we'll level the locations that we believe are involved in weapons production, probably take out some of the conventional military sites that are the source of shaped charges and militants and then hunker down to deal with the inevitable reaction.
Will we pre emptively strike? I firmly believe that we will. I supsect that such a strike will occur shortly after the november elections.
I'm watching the Mahdi army in Iraq carefully. The Iranians IMHO were banking on their ability to create a cascade of crisis simultaneously as either a deterent or a response. Sadr and Nasrallah and who knows what else all rising up at the same time.
Well we see this now. Nasrallah's role in this is now exposed. If we hear of a frontal assault on Sadr's militants look for a US strike shortly thereafter. Neutralizing Irans ability to use proxies to engender crisis is part of the plan.
This is really the last thing I'd like to witness. I really don't want a war with Iran, but the stakes are too high and it seems quite clear to me that Iran wants a war with us.
