Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Germany sells Israel submarines. Is this a response to Iran?
This morning, Germany agreed to sell Israel some new submarines and to finance part of the purchase price. The new submarines can stay under water far longer than Israel's existing subs, and can deliver missiles with nuclear warheads. Whether or not they change the game, it seems to me that the new submarines will enhance the credibility of Israel's nuclear deterrent, especially versus countries that are beyond the easy reach of Israel's air force.
I, for one, find it fascinating that this deal was announced the day after Iran rejected the West's demand that it stop enriching uranium. This deal had obviously been under discussion for some time, but the timing of its announcement is hard to put down to bureaucratic chance. Germany is sending a signal.
9 Comments:
By 
Lanky_Bastard, at
Wed Aug 23, 11:02:00 AM:
It's an interesting way to play hardball. And it's far more economically viable for Germany than an oil embargo would be.
The strategic advantage of subs is not only easier delivery, it's elimination of the first strike option. Submarines guarantee a retaliation even if the homeland is blanketed. They stabilize mutually assured destruction. Especially for a small country like Israel, sleeper subs are a good idea.
By Final Historian, at
Wed Aug 23, 11:38:00 AM:
Subs are also more useful for a first-strike, in that they can park themselves much closer to the target, so that when they launch their missiles the target has less time to react. That too can't be ignored by Iran. Your analysis is solid TH.
By 
, at
Wed Aug 23, 11:54:00 AM:
These subs also extend Israel's conventional range. My guess is that Israel's existing subs were primarily patrolling the eastern Med. If these are based out of Eilat, they could probably help contain the Iranian navy in and around the Persian Gulf, even without going nuclear.
By skipsailing, at
Wed Aug 23, 01:14:00 PM:
The diplomatic strategy now has to be centered on an effort to insure that the government in Teheran faces an endless stream of new challenges.
I am impressed that out host noticed the timing, it would not have occured to me. Still it is part and parcel of the need to insure that the midnight oil is constantly burning in the Teheran tents of power.
as I recall the soviets recently launched a spy satelite for the Israelis as well. I doubt that was part of some organized effort, rather simply a deal the russians needed since oil and military gear seems to be the only exports their economy can produce. Still the Iranian regime had to consider this and adjust to it.
Now the Mullahs have to respond, its a chess game and the moves are coming at them rapidly. the analogy I like is the scene in "the empire strikes back" where Darth Vader makes everything fly toward Luke. Even with the reaction rate of a jedi he is ultimately overwhelmed.
Yup, keep these guys back on their heels, make them react, react, react.
By lilfeathers2000, at
Wed Aug 23, 02:38:00 PM:
By , at
Wed Aug 23, 08:48:00 PM:
We discussed this very topic in a post we wrote in May:
Could submarines protect Israel?
We asserted that Israel needs to get it nuclear deterrent out to sea, for obvious reasons.
We also said in the post:
"Getting the bulk of Israel’s nuclear deterrent force out to sea and away from fixed bases is a smart way forward. Some leftist German parliamentarians reportedly objected to selling any more submarines to Israel, fearing that they would become nuclear weapons platforms. The Germans should not only sell the submarines, they should insist that Israel put its nukes aboard. The alternative will be a hair-trigger, launch-on-warning state of affairs. Anyone happy with that?"
Apparently everyone now understands this way of looking at the matter.
Westhawk
By Dawnfire82, at
Wed Aug 23, 10:10:00 PM:
Full concurrence with the bulk of the above comments. However, I find it unlikely that Israeli boomers will realistically be able to enhance an Israeli first strike option for the simple reason that they may not be able to make it to Iran in a single trip, at least without detection.
Since they can't go through the Suez Canal (hah! can you imagine?) and they aren't based at Aqaba, they'd have to sail west through the Med, around Africa, and up into the Persian Gulf. That's a hell of a long trip, no?
I think these subs are going to be purely defensive (Secure Second Strike) in nature.
By , at
Thu Aug 24, 10:06:00 AM:
This isn't big news. Israel has had three of these Dolphin class U-212 subs since 2001. Now they will have five. Israel reportedly test fired Popeye Cruise missiles from the 212's. These are not boomers, they fire their missles through the torpedo tubes. Supposedly the test occured in the Indian Ocean, so they are capable of sailing around the horn to get there.
I'm not sure they would want to take a sub too far up the Persian Gulf. It's shallow and there's no place for a sub to hide. The Gulf of Oman is deep enough for a sub to get around.
By , at
Thu Nov 23, 03:30:00 PM:
Possibly people commenting on this site may get their geography right. Aquaba is in Jordan and going round Cape Horn (i.e south America) to the Persian Gulf wld definetely be a stupid idea. Try The Cape of Good Hope, where Isreal has good relations with south Adfrica who together with Isreal developped a nucleur arms industry.......
