Tuesday, July 18, 2006
"Israel will not be Czechoslovakia. Israel will fight terror"
So said Ariel Sharon in October 2001, when the Second Intifada was in full swing. His comments were directed at the US and Europe. And he was referring to the historical analogy of Germany's assault on what Hitler referred to as the "Sudetenland," or Czechoslovakia -- an assault to which Europe and the US failed to respond forcefully, thus inviting further German expansionism.
Iran should have been listening to Sharon's comments. Ahmedinejad can call Israel "Palestine, " or even the Sudetenland, if he so pleases. So can Khamenei. Or Assad, Mugniyeh or Nasrallah. But Israel will not roll over, not will it rely on the good graces of the US or Europe. Nor does it seem that Israel will be abandoned by its friends in the US.
No. I think Hezbollah, deluded by its arrogance, will be greatly diminished, if not destroyed by its act of war. And Syria lacks the capacity or the desire to jump into the fray on Hezbollah's behalf. So here's the diplomatic tour de force that changes the equation if it can be orchestrated. Can the US and its Arab allies convince Syria, Hezbollah's protector, to sell out Hezbollah's leadership -- now in hiding between Lebanon and Syria? Hafez would have done it. Will Bashar? If he has the foresight to do it, and abandons Hezbollah and Iran in favor of the US, he will preserve and enhance his leadership of Syria and allow both Lebanon and Syria to move into the future. This is his best card, the best he's got.
It seems impossible certainly. But imagine that in several days, Hezbollah's fighting capacity will be eroded, its weapons inventories declining and its ability to resupply under great pressure. It will call out for assistance from Syria and Iran. What will they do? My view? Not much. Talk cease fire. Hezbollah will be in a vice. And then what does Syria have? A resurgent Israel, and a very weak and disloyal Iranian ally -- an ally that was probably prepared to see Syria go down in flames.
And they may have succeeded in only one, historically unprecedented development -- getting Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia to support Israel (albeit tacitly) against the Persian incursion into the Levant. A dream scenario, undoubtedly. Wishful thinking perhaps. But Israel has seen its share of miracles you know.
More of Sharon's 2001 comments: the context was different, but the message resonates today.
Indeed they are, and they will. Every decade, this region throws out some unpredictable and extraordinary surprises. Perhaps 2006 will be the year Israel defeats the existential threat provided by Hezbollah, and turns threat to opportunity.
Iran should have been listening to Sharon's comments. Ahmedinejad can call Israel "Palestine, " or even the Sudetenland, if he so pleases. So can Khamenei. Or Assad, Mugniyeh or Nasrallah. But Israel will not roll over, not will it rely on the good graces of the US or Europe. Nor does it seem that Israel will be abandoned by its friends in the US.
No. I think Hezbollah, deluded by its arrogance, will be greatly diminished, if not destroyed by its act of war. And Syria lacks the capacity or the desire to jump into the fray on Hezbollah's behalf. So here's the diplomatic tour de force that changes the equation if it can be orchestrated. Can the US and its Arab allies convince Syria, Hezbollah's protector, to sell out Hezbollah's leadership -- now in hiding between Lebanon and Syria? Hafez would have done it. Will Bashar? If he has the foresight to do it, and abandons Hezbollah and Iran in favor of the US, he will preserve and enhance his leadership of Syria and allow both Lebanon and Syria to move into the future. This is his best card, the best he's got.
It seems impossible certainly. But imagine that in several days, Hezbollah's fighting capacity will be eroded, its weapons inventories declining and its ability to resupply under great pressure. It will call out for assistance from Syria and Iran. What will they do? My view? Not much. Talk cease fire. Hezbollah will be in a vice. And then what does Syria have? A resurgent Israel, and a very weak and disloyal Iranian ally -- an ally that was probably prepared to see Syria go down in flames.
And they may have succeeded in only one, historically unprecedented development -- getting Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia to support Israel (albeit tacitly) against the Persian incursion into the Levant. A dream scenario, undoubtedly. Wishful thinking perhaps. But Israel has seen its share of miracles you know.
More of Sharon's 2001 comments: the context was different, but the message resonates today.
I turn to the western democracies, first and foremost the leader of the free world, the United States. Do not repeat the dreadful mistake of 1938, when the enlightened democracies of Europe decided to sacrifice Czechoslovakia for the sake of a temporary, convenient solution. Don't try to appease the Arabs at our expense. We will not accept this. Israel will not be Czechoslovakia. Israel will fight terror. There's no difference between 'good terror' and 'bad terror' just as there is no difference between 'good murder' and 'bad murder.' Terrorism, as we witnessed this week in Alei Sinai, is worse than murder."
Finally, Sharon turned to the Israeli people: "We have been fighting terrorism for over 100 years. Unfortunately, there is no swift and immediate solution, but if we confront this terrorism united, we will be able to overcome it and bring peace. And we shall overcome."
Indeed they are, and they will. Every decade, this region throws out some unpredictable and extraordinary surprises. Perhaps 2006 will be the year Israel defeats the existential threat provided by Hezbollah, and turns threat to opportunity.
1 Comments:
By 
Papa Ray, at
Tue Jul 18, 07:30:00 PM:
If Sharon was in good health and in power I would agree that this might be the year of Hezbollah's defeat or at least to make their military arm harmless.
But he is not. The present government in Israel is not strong enought to stand against Hamas, Hezbollah, the UN and the Western governments that want this conflict to stop.
They want it to stop for different reasons but the main one is the economy.
They are not ready enough yet, to do the right thing, to allow Israel to finish the job of destroying the terrorists to their north and to their south.
Money talks and bull.... (doing the right thing) walks.
Papa Ray
West Texas
USA
