Monday, May 01, 2006
The status of al Qaeda in Iraq
Strategypage this morning describes the mistakes that al Qaeda has made in Iraq, and declares its defeat. The post strikes me as a little on the triumphalist side, but it does remind us that "blowback" is not a uniquely American problem. Much as Americans worry that our aggressive foreign policy has created more enemies, it have also caused the jihadis to fumble -- forced turnovers, as it were. They have created their own blowback, the first step in the war to discredit their ideology.
CWCID: Instapundit.
3 Comments:
By 
Tom the Redhunter, at
Mon May 01, 08:17:00 AM:
As I'm sure you know, StrategyPage has been saying this for a few months now. And while they may overstate the case, I'd say they've got it pretty much right.
The danger in Iraq now has shifted from the original insurgency to the militias and sectarian violence. The danger they pose is 1) a threat to the government in that they (SCIRI and al Sadr) want an Iranian-style theocracy, and 2) ethnic cleansing a la Yugoslavia.
We, or at least the msm, tends to forget that the other side makes mistakes too. It is natural, I suppose, that we spend most of our time concentrating on our own.
By geekesque, at
Mon May 01, 02:37:00 PM:
AQ may be losing their appeal to Iraqis (though I doubt they ever had much to begin with).
However, it would seem that they've succeeded in aggravating sectarian and ethnic tensions to the point where civil war is a real possibility.
It also bears noting that the AQ terrorists blowing up children are a much different crowd than the Baathist dead-enders who are planting IED's.
The most recent poster noted the militias. I'll take that one step further--a BIG problem is the degree to which Iranian-friendly militias have infiltrated the Iraqi security forces. People should think about that problem long and hard before cheerleading for a military strike against Iran.
By geoffrobinson, at
Mon May 01, 11:20:00 PM:
I think they are trying to declare victory and "get out" like the Soviets in Afghanistan, etc.
America will withdraw eventually. There doesn't need to be zero violence to withdraw. So if al Qaeda claims they are the reason ahead of time, they can make themselves look strong to the rest of the Muslim world.
Thereby saving face, status, etc.
