Tuesday, April 11, 2006
Iran's centrifuge cascade
I was jammed for most of the day today, but did want to put up one note on Iran's announcement that it had mastered the uranium fuel cycle. Notwithstanding the persistent claim that it is not looking to build a weapon, it has announced an intention to deploy more centrifuges than it could possibly need for peaceful purposes:
At the end of march I attended a discussion at Princeton during which Professor Frank von Hippel described the process of uranium enrichment. According to that presentation, Iran could do a number of different things with a pilot plant of only 1,000 centrifuges:
If I understood Professor von Hippel correctly, then, 3,000 centrifuges running in parallel could enrich enough uranium for one bomb in four months, or three bombs in a year. If Iran can get 3,000 centrifuges on line by the end of 2006 and is otherwise ready to build its first bomb, it could have a nuclear weapon by this time next year.
UPDATE (Thursday morning): Updates, corrections, and further thoughts are here.
Uranium enrichment can produce either fuel for a nuclear energy reactor — as Iran says it seeks — or the material needed for an atomic warhead.
Tuesday's announcement does not mean Iran is immediately capable of doing either. So far it has succeeded only in getting a series of 164 centrifuges to work in the enrichment process. Thousands of centrifuges are needed for a workable program.
But successfully carrying out the highly complicated and delicate process even on a small scale would be a breakthrough, and Iran's nuclear chief said the program would be expanded to 3,000 centrifuges by the end of the year.
At the end of march I attended a discussion at Princeton during which Professor Frank von Hippel described the process of uranium enrichment. According to that presentation, Iran could do a number of different things with a pilot plant of only 1,000 centrifuges:
Master the technology for commercial-scale enrichment.
Make enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in one year using natural-uranium feed.
Produce low-enriched uranium for a year and then enrich the product to enough for a bomb in two months.
If I understood Professor von Hippel correctly, then, 3,000 centrifuges running in parallel could enrich enough uranium for one bomb in four months, or three bombs in a year. If Iran can get 3,000 centrifuges on line by the end of 2006 and is otherwise ready to build its first bomb, it could have a nuclear weapon by this time next year.
UPDATE (Thursday morning): Updates, corrections, and further thoughts are here.
1 Comments:
By 
Lanky_Bastard, at
Wed Apr 12, 06:15:00 PM:
So, are you saying that (based on your understanding of Professor von Hippel) you have a better projection of Iran's nuclear capability than the National Intelligence Estimate?
Or is this just a big pile of if?
