Saturday, February 11, 2006
Democritization And The New Arab "Base"
...the Bush administration's policy picked up another ally in Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of the Colonel. The son, who according to the BBC is Muammar Gaddafi's most trusted unofficial advisor, "says he agrees with US President George W. Bush that the Middle East needs democracy."
It is amazing, if you think about it, how very few people in either the Arab world or the West are willing to make that simple statement.
To me, it doesn't seem strange to be unwilling to say publicly what one thinks privately, especially in a repressive political environment. For that matter, it doesn't seem all that surprising that people might hesitate to express support for democritization even in a more open society like the West.
Regardless of time or place, the costs of bringing about radical change are always higher than the costs of maintaining the status quo. When change involves something as sweeping as bringing democracy to an entire region, the downside of supporting change is only magnified.
In the Arab world, supporting democritization means publicly advocating the abolition of historically repressive governments who take a dim view of dissent and will understandably be reluctant to reliquish power. Is it then so surprising that few publicly support a movement that would, if successful, very likely overthrow their existing governments?
For citizens of the West, supporting democritization is equally problematic. The costs of bringing democracy to people half-way across the world are high - thousands of dead and wounded soldiers, billions of dollars in tax money invested in a foreign land, time and attention diverted from domestic matters - and the long-term benefits both uncertain and likely to take years to be fully realized. Far easier to retreat into inaction, carping criticism, or empty platitudes like 'war is never the answer'.
What amazes me, given centuries of prejudice and the unrelenting efforts of al Jazeera to taint our efforts with suspicion, is that so much of the "Arab street" now sees democracy as something they want in their world:
The new poll also found that growing majorities or pluralities of Muslims now say that democracy can work in their countries and is not just a Western ideology. Support for democracy was in the 80 percent range in Indonesia, Jordan, Lebanon and Morocco. It was selected by 43 percent in Pakistan and 48 percent in Turkey -- the largest blocks of respondents in both countries because significant numbers were unsure.
"They are not just paying lip service. They are saying they specifically want a fair judiciary, freedom of expression and more than one party in elections. It wasn't just a vague concept," Kohut said. "U.S. and Western ideas about democracy have been globalized and are in the Muslim world."
What people think privately and what they are willing to say publicly are often two very different things, but this represents a titanic shift in opinion in the Middle East, especially when you consider that support for democritization requires Arabs to look past the undeniable fact that Bush's strategy, at least in the short term, has brought war to both Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet apparently, much of the Arab world is able to look past the undeniable suffering of the present to the future and grasp the long-term benefits democracy can bring to their world.
Ironically, the name al Qaeda chose for itself means 'the base'. Could Bush's illegal, unjust, reckless, unilateral invasion of Iraq be creating an unlikely "base" of moderate Arabs who dream of democracy to counter the fundamentalist zealots who want to impose their will by force? It certainly didn't exist before the GWOT.
Only time will tell, but the signs are promising.
6 Comments:
By 
Cassandra, at
Sat Feb 11, 01:45:00 PM:
Ouch! Never thought of it that way :)
By Final Historian, at
Sat Feb 11, 05:22:00 PM:
I should point out that Quaddafi's son's idea of democracy is considerably different from you and I understand of it. Remember, the meaning is more important than the word itself.
By Assistant Village Idiot, at
Sat Feb 11, 11:49:00 PM:
In the end, they don't have to like us. They just have to like democracy.
By 
, at
Sun Feb 12, 08:13:00 AM:
Cassandra,
Democritization derives from the Greek philosopher Democrites, who first conceived the atomic theory of matter.... which led to the atomic bomb, so discussing it in connection with Islam may be appropriate just now ;-)
Democratization refers to the process of becoming democratic.
SDN
By Cassandra, at
Sun Feb 12, 08:56:00 AM:
That's a good point FH, but on the otter heiny, two hundred years ago, our concept of democracy (only white men could vote, etc.) was considerably different than it is today.
Democracy is a journey, not a final destination. But unless you go out the front door you won't get far.
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