Tuesday, September 06, 2005
Chernobyl: Lessons of disasters past
The New York Times published a fascinating article this morning about the ultimate consequences of the Chernobyl disaster in the Soviet Union (now Ukraine) twenty years ago.
This is obviously quite different from Katrina, insofar as the risk from Chernobyl was thought to come from increased rates of cancer over a long period of time, and we should know the extent of the mortality following Katrina within a few weeks. The Chernobyl case is, however, much closer to the predictions for "mad cow" mortality in the United Kingdom a decade ago. At that time, "experts" estimated that more than 100,000 Britons would ultimately die of the human form of "mad cow" disease, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD). Understandably, this panicked both the public and politicians into no end of silliness that persists until this day. Today, with a better understanding of the disease's incubation period, we expect that total British mortality from vCJD will not exceed 200 cases, yet the legacy of that early prediction lives on in alarmist press coverage and costly regulatory responses.
The Chernobyl story does, however, include an important lesson that we should bear in mind when we consider the extent to which the victims of Katrina should be compensated or otherwise subsidized.
Whatever we may do to help the people displaced by Katrina -- and we certainly should do a lot, especially for the poor -- it must be carefully calibrated to lead them quickly into productive, useful lives, whether in the affected region or elsewhere in the Katrina Diaspora. If we have to choose between subsidizing dependancy in the region or independence outside the region, we should choose the latter even if the local politicians object.
Nearly 20 years after the huge accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, a new scientific report has found that its aftereffects on health and the environment have not proved as dire as scientists had predicted...
The report, "Chernobyl's Legacy: Health, Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts," says 4,000 deaths will probably be attributable to the accident ultimately - compared with the tens of thousands predicted at the time of the accident.
This is obviously quite different from Katrina, insofar as the risk from Chernobyl was thought to come from increased rates of cancer over a long period of time, and we should know the extent of the mortality following Katrina within a few weeks. The Chernobyl case is, however, much closer to the predictions for "mad cow" mortality in the United Kingdom a decade ago. At that time, "experts" estimated that more than 100,000 Britons would ultimately die of the human form of "mad cow" disease, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD). Understandably, this panicked both the public and politicians into no end of silliness that persists until this day. Today, with a better understanding of the disease's incubation period, we expect that total British mortality from vCJD will not exceed 200 cases, yet the legacy of that early prediction lives on in alarmist press coverage and costly regulatory responses.
The Chernobyl story does, however, include an important lesson that we should bear in mind when we consider the extent to which the victims of Katrina should be compensated or otherwise subsidized.
[The Chernobyl report] says huge compensation programs for people in the Chernobyl region have become "a major barrier to the region's recovery," both by creating a culture of dependency and by soaking up a high percentage of the region's resources. It recommends that the compensation programs be cut back...
The panel found that contrary to previous forecasts, there had been no observed rise in the incidence of leukemia, a blood cancer widely associated with radiation exposure - except for a small increase among workers who were in the contaminated plant. Nor has there been the expected detectable decrease in fertility or increase in birth defects.
Indeed, the report concludes that "the largest public health problem unleashed by the accident" is "the mental health impact." Residents of the region, who view themselves as victims of a tragedy they poorly understand, are still haunted by anxiety that has prevented many from restarting their lives...
Whatever we may do to help the people displaced by Katrina -- and we certainly should do a lot, especially for the poor -- it must be carefully calibrated to lead them quickly into productive, useful lives, whether in the affected region or elsewhere in the Katrina Diaspora. If we have to choose between subsidizing dependancy in the region or independence outside the region, we should choose the latter even if the local politicians object.
1 Comments:
By 
Cardinalpark, at
Tue Sep 06, 09:44:00 AM:
I vaguely remember in high school math or science learning that simple extrapolations always overestimated eventual results due to adaptive behavior to mitigate undesired results. I remember on 9/11 thinking 40,000 people might day in the morning and being shocked to discover how many folks got out, with heroic assistance. Adaptive behavior is powerful stuff...
