Wednesday, June 22, 2005
Iran Press News: "China will never permit the Islamic Republic of Iran to gain access to nuclear weapons" said the Foreign Minister of China, Li Hoaxing who was visiting Israel.
Li Hoaxing who is on an official state trip to Israel spoke from Jerusalem. He continued: "Though China does have certain relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, it will never agree to permit such a regime to equipped with nuclear weapons."
That the Foreign Minister of China should say this in Jerusalem is interesting. Israel has built strong relations with India in the last few years, and now China's foreign minister takes a vocal stand in a matter of huge importance to Israel on a visit to Jerusalem. Israel's diplomatic isolation seems to be ending.
I admit that I do not understand why it is in China's interest to do this, especially since it has been going to great lengths to secure its supply of oil from the Persian Gulf. One would think that facing the mullahs from Jerusalem would not be the best way to guarantee the flow of crude.
Any ideas? Knock yourself out. Since I am sweltering in an unairconditioned hotel room in Lyon with little chance of sleeping, I may even respond tonight.
Well, Israel and China hava been cooperating on military matters quite a bit. Israel has been helping to upgrade China's stuff (imagine, a little country like Israel upgrading the military of a giant like China...you could write whole essays on why and how that is - wake up you repressive regimes) - to the extent that the US has told Israel to knock it off quite recently.
Telling Israel, "Don't worry, we won't let them nuke you," is pretty small payment and low cost, especially for a country who's word (Red China) means very, very little, and is really just repeating UN policy.
A couple quick thoughts.
I think part of the answer can be found in
1. Wrechard's 'Three Conjectures'.
2. Barnett's 'The Pentagons New Map'
3. ‘The Clash of Civilizations’
Basically, for all its faults China lives within the civilized core of nations. One can deal with them in reciprocity. Like the Soviet Union, Trust But Verify. Deterrence functions. There is recognized leadership. Measured response can be made.
Once stateless Islamofascist use, or attempt to use, WMD the game is up and the starting gun is fired. There is no point in measured escalation. There is no command element, there is no deterrent effect, the movement is not limited to any state, and there is no confidence in any agreements.
I postulate that if an Islamofascist terrorist group, let’s say al Qaeda, nukes Paris the retribution will not be limited to coming from France, Europe, and/or even America. Even if the west proves soft and pliable, it is at least somewhat likely that China and Russia will become involved to the extreme. Actually, more than likely.
It's one of two things:
1. Could be that good news from inside Iran is imminent. China has to be well placed within the country and have good info and they know the Mullahs can't give up the bomb and survive politically.
2. They know the Mullahs can't give up the bomb and survive politically and so they're providing the same cover they're providing the Norks by pretending to be against what they really aren't against. Cheifly, more trouble for America.
Inscrutable as ever.
I think it is an opening gambit of a calculated negotiating session by China.
Somewhere there must have been a serious private dispute between Iran and China, probably over oil business deals.
In fact, I would rather liken it to diplomatic blackmail.
China is basically threatening Iran with "We control your destiny". Because if WE (China) demand your actions be taken to the UN Security Council, your finished economically. I think China had to state that in a very meaningful, public and forceful way to get Iran to listen.
I think it will be very effective for China. And I have a feeling Iran will NOT respond publically to this statement.
Can you imagine if China pushed for UN Security Council resolution for Iran? I think they would succeed.
China is learning to play power politics. And no doubt to their benefit. Do not forget the ruthlessness of Cumminst regimes.
I meant also to say above that even though China did not actually use the words "UN Security Council sanctions", but that in effect is what their statement means.
Very sly and subtle on China's part. Not to forceful to completely piss off Iran yet clear enough for them to get the "big picture".
Security Council resolution against Iran = end of the Iranian regime. Everyone knows this particularly the mullahs.
It is indeed power politics. And China will probably get whatever they are seeking from Iran.
Oops also forgot to say that by China making the statement from inside Israel they have done a double power play:
1) They definately got Iran's attention on the seriousness of China.
2) Their statement of threat against Iran is in effect a support for Israel. They will get a lot of good diplomatic mileage from Israelis out of that. Hence better business deals from them.
Its 2 business trips for the price of one!
And nowadays the Communists Chinese are all about doing business. Ruthless business.
This must also be a subtle shot at North Korean ambitions. China is the one country best able to threaten non-military sanctions against NK (as suppliers of most of its energy and food). This strong stance against Iran is sure to noticed in NK as a strong indication that China is serious about non-proliferation among the wacky and tyranical.
What perplexes me is that TH found this on the Iran News Website. It seems to me the Iranis would not want to further publish or sanction statements of this type.
That said, we are always cynical when arms and currency are involved. Or to rephrase the Tao, "arms and gold are like water, they will always seek to combine at the lowest level."
Ever since one troglodyte figured out how to chip an edge onto a piece of flint and his neighbor realized he was going to be left behind we have had an arms race. And as long as someone has invented arms they have been used both for good and for evil. The rest is just a matter of time. As for me, I am thinking Northern Idaho should be reasonably safe in the event of a US incident.
One further thought, since this comes from the Irani press agency, and since the leadership there is generally trying to make the case for a great conspiracy by Western nations to deny Iran as justification for its ongoing nuclear program, maybe this is just more propaganda to justify a WMD program to the faithful in Tehran.
I am further perplexed as to how China denying Iran weapons would make a difference, since this is already 70 year old technology and the Iranis are probably smart enough to do anything they need to on their own. Of course as regards purchases see our previous statement above. If they really want to buy it, someone somewhere someday will be willing to sell.
It's all power politics on China's behalf with the sole intention to discredit America's position in the Middle East and create a diversion from the real issues. The US is about to knock down China's economy...constantly applying pressure to revalue the yuan. If China were to revalue its currency right now, it might never recover considering that its revenue is derived primarily though export and nothing to fall back on domestically. I made a few posts about this on my blog too.