Monday, May 02, 2005
Squeezing Taiwan
The background, for those of you who do not follow such matters, is that Taiwan is ruled today by President Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Part (DPP), which has made a lot of noise about independence over the last three years. This is, of course, anathema to the People's Republic of China, which has always been willing to tolerate a politically separate Taiwan as long as it maintains the fiction that there is only "one China." China eventully reacted to pro-independence demonstrations in Taiwan by enacting the now infamous "anti-secession" law. The new law really did nothing but restate the central tenet of China's fifty-year policy toward Taiwan, but it unleashed no end of hanky-twisting in the West because it derailed France's bid to lift Europe's embargo of certain weapons sales to Beijing. Chen also makes the United States nervous, because he sometimes acts as though the American security guarantee is unconditional, which it is not.
On Friday we woke to the spectacle of the leader of Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) in Beijing, shaking hangs with China's President Hu Jintao and officially settling the 80 year Chinese civil war that ended in substance when the Communists drove the KMT and Chiang Kai-Shek from the mainland in 1949. Since the KMT are not in power in Taiwan, this gesture appeared to be aimed at domestic constituencies in both Taiwan and China. I wrote on Friday:
This would have been a useful gesture from the KMT a few years ago, when it was in power in Taiwan. Now the KMT is in opposition to Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has been pushing at the boundaries of full-fledged independence (at no small risk to the United States, I might add).
With the minor qualification that I know next to nothing about Taiwanese politics, today's handshake seems like a transparent attempt to suck up to Taiwanese voters and other actors who are worried about recent sabre-rattling with China. The message from both China and the KMT is clear: only the KMT can restore the status quo ante, which is a tacit understanding that Taiwan will remain unmolested by the PRC and free to get rich only so long as it does not represent itself as either China or an independent country.
The United States jumped on the KMT's opening directly and publicly, telling President Chen in unusually blunt terms that he had better also reach out to China:
"We all have a shared goal of peace and stability in the region, and we believe cross-Strait dialogue is important to promoting peace and stability in the region," McClellan said at the White House. "We welcome dialogue between China and leaders in Taiwan. Now, we believe that it's most important that there be dialogue between Chinese leaders and the elected representatives of the government of Taiwan."
He said the United States thus hopes "that this would be a sign that China would continue to move forward on a dialogue with President Chen and representatives of his government."
In diplomatic terms, this amounts to a public order from the United States -- the wobbly guarantor of Taiwan's security -- that Chen knock off the independence talk and start getting serious about getting along with the mainland.
Then yesterday we saw Chen send a not-so-secret "secret message" (mirror here) to China asking for discussions.
On Sunday, President Chen said that he had asked James Soong, the chairman of the small People First Party, to convey a message to China's leaders when Mr. Soong travels to the mainland on Thursday for a weeklong trip. Using Mr. Soong as an envoy amounts to the most direct contact between Taiwan and China since President Chen's election five years ago.
The president said that the message was based on a 10-point consensus that he had reached Feb. 24 with Mr. Soong on cross-strait relations and other issues.
The president's remarks on Monday suggest that the message includes a request for cross-strait military coordination.
But the details of the message were being kept so secret that even the Taiwan cabinet official in charge of relations with mainland China, Joseph Wu, the chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council, had not been told.
President Chen runs a party that is pushing Taiwan to declare independence. Presumably Joseph Wu, the chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, also wants independence. However, the declaration of Taiwan's independence would put both the United States and China in a very tough spot, including perhaps military confrontation. China would be forced to take action or lose all credibility. While the United States' guarantee of Taiwan's security technically does not apply if Taiwan declares independence, the Taiwan boosters on the American right will push the Bush Administration very hard to confront China if China mobilizes against Taiwan. To diffuse the risk of such a confrontation, therefore, the United States has exerted enormous pressure on Chen to cool the tension with Beijing -- McClellan's mild remarks had to have been merely the public evidence of that pressure. Chen is trying to do that without alerting his own pro-independence constituents.
Pro-independence forces in Taiwan clearly see it this way:
[Philip] Hsu [assistant professor of political science at National Taiwan University] also accused the US government of clandestinely encouraging President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) to sign a 10-point consensus with People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) -- a move regarded as curbing Taiwan's independence forces.
The US even publicly "directed" Chen to act moderately and reasonably while attending the March 26 demonstration against China's "Anti-Secession" Law, Hsu said.
Unfortunately, we have to meddle in Taiwan's internal politics as long as we are committed to our guarantee of Taiwan's security, itself a relic of the Cold War that we should seriously consider abandoning.
UPDATE: Philip Bowring wrote this morning about the consequences of all of this to Taiwan's domestic politics. He agrees that the KMT was working domestic constituencies, and adds the wrinkle that Lien Chan was trying to revive his own future within the KMT. Bowring, like most of the rest of the Western MSM, does not mention the American arm-twisting.
6 Comments:
By 
Chris Lawrence, at
Mon May 02, 08:21:00 PM:
On the other hand, I'm not at all convinced abandoning the security guarantee is a good idea, at least not until the mainland leadership credibly renounces the use of force to reunify the country.
Then again, if Taiwan has an undeclared nuclear deterrent (which it certainly has the technical capacity to construct, although perhaps not the fissionable materials), the security guarantee may not be needed.
By TigerHawk, at
Mon May 02, 08:34:00 PM:
Any retreat from the guarantee has to occur at a moment that is opportune for the United States, and we should get something for it. I'm thinking that we ask for regime change in North Korea.
By Red A, at
Tue May 03, 05:53:00 AM:
Glad to see you guys write off 23 million people who are pro-democracy and the most pro-American in the region just because some of them would like to be independent of China.
Actually, the independence support would be much lower, except China keeps doing things that make people here NOT want to be part of China.
By TigerHawk, at
Tue May 03, 07:01:00 AM:
Red A -
It is not a question of "writing off" 23 million people. However, there are three points about Taiwan and the American security guarantee that I have not seen anybody refute.
First, Taiwan could do more to help itself. It has been dithering over the acquisition of $18 billion in weapons sales authorized by the U.S. Congress. It is dithering because it is "free" for Taiwan to dither, knowing as it does that the United States will defend it. Taiwan has been free-riding in this regard.
Second, Chen and the DPP have been so aggressive about independance -- which the United States does not formally guarantee -- because they know that with a Republican in the White House the United States would be under a lot of pressure to defend Taiwan even if Taiwan declared independance. This condition is what economists, in other contexts, call a "moral hazard."
Third, you have to wonder whether the American security guarantee will remain credible for much longer, flying in the face (as it does) of a rising Chinese military. Will an American President be willing to trade Honolulu for Taipei? I doubt it. If I doubt it, the Chinese will doubt it. That means that the credibility of our guarantee is fraying. We cannot sustain it forever. Eventually, Taiwan must reconcile with the PRC or defend itself. The only question is when.
By Dr. Demarche, at
Tue May 03, 04:50:00 PM:
Tigerhawk: great post and excellent rebuttal in the comments. This dance will go on for some time, but as China continues to grow economically and become more engaged with the world Taiwan could be their way out of Communism- it might be a stretch but reaching out to Taiwan may not be that far away. Call me crazy, but China can either go the way of the Soviet Union complete with post Communism collapse, or Hong Kong and Taiwan can lead the way out of the darkness. Time will tell.
By 
, at
Fri May 06, 03:54:00 PM:
First of all, I think that Lien should be arrested for trying to conduct his own foreign policy against the duly-elected government.
Second, the fact that you think Chen has been "so aggressive" about independence proves your disclaimer about "knowing nothing about Taiwanese politics". Chen has been no more aggressive on this issue than his predecessor, Lee Tung-Hui, and is more moderate than the average Taiwanese citizen.
Third, it's questionable whether or not China has the military capability to successfully invade Taiwan. It's a massive 100-mile infantry swim. To be able to successfully invade, you need to establish total air and naval superiority over the target as a precondition. CHina has a 4-1 air edge, which sounds impressive until you realize 1. That's about the same edge the Luftwaffe had on the RAF
2. Taiwanese planes are technologically superior
3. China will not be able to concentrate all of its planes on Taiwan, eroding some of its numerical superiority.
4. Taiwan will be flying over its homeland, so you'd have to add in SAMS and other Air Defense
Realistically, the only hope would be for China to either catch Taiwan in a Pearl Harbor situation (unlikely) or fight a war of attrition in the air and slowly wear down Taiwan through sheer numbers.
However, China does not have that option. First, there's the amount of trade that the two do with each other. Then, there's the US and the West. Finally, there's Japan and the rest of the region. All would drastically cut investment, whether to punish China or in fear of regional instability. Realistically, China has a window of only a few weeks in order to complete the conquest and present the world with a fait accompli. Otherwise, it faces economic disaster. Wearing down the Taiwanese Air Force would take months at least.
This isn't even going into the Navy, where China's technological deficiency is even more glaring, its numerical edge is not nearly as strong, and you also once again have to be able to establish total superiority before you start landings.
As for trading Honolulu for Taipei, if that happens then the Chinese leadership have abandoned all rationality because of the economic damage they're doing to themselves.
