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Saturday, May 07, 2005

Abu Faraj al-Libbi's notebook 

Austin Bay, Robert Spencer and others are tracking news reports that describe the alleged intelligence bonanza that we have uncovered in connection with the capture earlier this week of Abu Faraj al-Libbi, a senior al Qaeda operative. We apparently have his notebook -- whatever that might be -- and a laptop computer.

I am, perhaps, a little more troubled by this news than either Bay or Spencer. Not that we have this information -- who could be against that? -- but that you, me and six billion other people know that we have this information. We caught this guy three days ago, apparently under circumstances that made it difficult to cover up his capture. But how is it that the media is in a position to confirm that we have his laptop and notebook? Will not "the Libyan's" compatriots do everything they can, as quickly as they can, to render al-Libbi's information obsolete? Wouldn't it have been wiser to leave them wondering whether we learned anything useful from al-Libbi?

If al-Libbi's information turns out to have been significant, we probably degraded its value by publicizing our possession of it. If so, both the leaker and the news outlets who published the story have done us a great disservice. Indeed, that may have been the leaker's intention -- Pakistan's intelligence service is riddled with jihadi sympathizers. It is entirely possible that the stories about the notebook and the laptop were leaked with the nefarious purpose of warning the Islamists to get out of Dodge.

UPDATE: This, on the other hand, is what I want to see -- news of a capture weeks after the fact:
US and Iraqi forces say they have captured an associate of Iraq's most-wanted terrorist.

They say the aide to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (AH'-boo MOO'-sahb ahl-zahr-KOW'-ee) was arrested in western Iraq last month.


UPDATE: The Times of London is reporting in tomorrow's edition that Abu Faraj al-Libbi may not be a very big guy after all. This ugly bastard may be middle management, and have been confused for a big cheese still at large. Using the notorious "some believe" construct (if "some believe," why not tell us who?), the Times hints that the mistake, if there was one, might have been on purpose:
Some believe al-Libbi’s significance has been cynically hyped by two countries that want to distract attention from their lack of progress in capturing Bin Laden, who has now been on the run for almost four years.

That strikes me as asinine. It is far more plausible that a mid-level flunky made a boo-boo, and Musharraf, Bush and Rice ran their victory laps without doing sufficient due diligence.

3 Comments:

By Blogger MrSurly, at Sat May 07, 08:36:00 AM:

Funny, I had the same reaction -- pretty much right after I saw his picuture for the first time and though that guy looks messed up! Being a terrorist was not good for his look. But after that I thought it seemed pretty fast to announce his capture, too fast to capitalize on any information learned from him. It does make one wonder about the circumstances surrounding the announcement of his capture.  

By Blogger Alcibiades, at Sat May 07, 11:29:00 AM:

Debka is reporting 18 members of his terrorist network now arrested in Mardan.

Seems like that is some of the bonanza from the laptop.

Hope it's accurate.  

By Blogger TigerHawk, at Sat May 07, 03:03:00 PM:

Alcibiades -

It would be great if it were accurate. Tragically, you can't believe everything you read on Debka. By a longshot.  

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