Friday, September 17, 2004

Poll spinning 

There is going to be massive poll-spinning today. Reuters, which bends over backwards to be objective [What?! Are you insane? - eds.], dwells at length over two polls that show that Bush's post convention gap has closed.
The Pew survey sampled voters in two waves. The first poll of likely voters, taken September 8-10, found Bush ahead by 16 percentage points. The second poll on September 11-14, which had a 3.5 percentage point margin of error, found Bush with a statistically insignificant one-point lead. Among registered voters, it was deadlocked.

The Harris poll, which was conducted September 9-13 and had a 3 point margin of error, found Kerry with a one-point lead. A Harris poll in June gave Bush a 10 percentage point lead.

Reuters, however, does not mention the new Gallup poll released today under the Gallup Organization headline "Bush bounce keeps on going." It is unclear whether the Reuters article was published before or after the release of the Gallup poll.

In any case, Gallup's poll, which taken September 13-15 (overlapping the Pew and Harris polls, but shifted later) shows Bush with an 8 point lead among registered voters, and a staggering 13 point lead among likely voters.

There's a lot of interesting stuff buried in the Gallup poll. For example, Bush's lead has grown sharply among people younger than 49 and older than 64, but he has actually lost ground during the past month to the Vietnam generation -- people between 50 and 64. It is almost as though Kerry's strategy of "all Vietnam, all the time", which seems to have backfired spectacularly among most constituencies, actually might have worked with those who fought in the war or were at risk of it.

In any case, go read the whole thing.


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