Friday, July 23, 2004
First guy: "Incumbents with a forty-something approval rating in mid-summer is in BIG trouble!"
Second guy: "40% approval rating mid-summer? No biggie. I've got three words for you: (1) Thomas (2) E. (3) Dewey.
"Dewey was a governor of NY, popular guy, made his name fighting crime. He faced an incumbent President who hadn't even been elected; he just got the job by default...who had WORSE approval ratings than George W going into the conventions. The right wing/redneck piece of this president's party was ready to desert him at the convention. The left wing mistrusted him and wouldn't even embrace him. The media laughed at him and portrayed him as an ignorant cracker. Everything he did was blocked by a hostile Congress. The world was a dangerous place and getting worse, and many voters blamed it on him, fair or not.
"Facing this dismal incumbent president was Dewey: charismatic moderate Republican, educated, flush with campaign money, good team of domestic and int'l advisors (like John Foster Dulles) in place. Dewey pulled well ahead in every poll by Election Day.
"And yet with all this fanfare, poll numbers and positive prognostication, Dewey lost! Thus, a cautionary tale to Kerry and his slick/phony smiling running mate: Put down the guitar and VO-5 hair gel and get out there and convince folks to vote FOR them, rather than AGAINST Bush. There is a difference."
Interesting. I had not thought of the Dewey analogy.