Thursday, October 07, 2010
Predict the number
Do your research at RCP or Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, or just use your gut instinct, and predict the net gain in House seats for the Republicans resulting from the midterm elections in less than four weeks.
The poll question break points note that a gain of 39 seats is needed for a change in majority.
If the actual result is either of the first two dots, Speaker Pelosi's grin might be permanently etched on her face, and perhaps even the White House will be relieved as well (although, as I have blogged previously, a Republican takeover of the House might be exactly what President Obama wants as he looks toward 2012).
6 Comments:
By 
, at
Thu Oct 07, 02:53:00 PM:
I can tell, just by looking at the results of the poll, just who your readers are. Here is the reality, the Republicans will gain less than 18 seats and will not gain the majority in either the house or the senate.
Mark my words.
By 
Escort81, at
Thu Oct 07, 03:10:00 PM:
Vicki - let's wait for a little bit larger sample size. Also, non-TigerHawk readers can see the poll and cast votes through Pollcode.com, so the results are not necessarily indicative of the attitudes of the readers of this blog. Obviously, nothing here is following any kind of scientific method, and it is meant to be kind of a fun exercise.
If you are correct, given the overall backdrop, it will be as big a Democratic victory as anything in 2006 or 2008, even though it is an actual net loss of seats.
By , at
Thu Oct 07, 06:02:00 PM:
I’ve been at net 55 for a few months now. I was at net 45 before that – an early call.
Vicki, I’m being objective. This is bigger than the “Tea Party” as it’s been narrowly defined by MSM. The Democrats have lost Independents and Reagan Democrats (including the white working class). They’ll really get killed if turnout is low among the young and Hispanics. Even blacks may not turn out. Motivating the base has been behind much of what Obama’s has done these last several weeks – it smacks of desperation.
You have to live in California and only travel in narrow circles, to think it’ll only be net 18.
If I were the Republicans I’d run anti-Obama/anti-Nancy ads the last ten days. This will further suppress Democratic turnout. If turnout is low, net 55 could be too low.
Capturing the Senate is harder, but now very possible. Even Christine O’Donnell has a shot.
***
Presumably Vicki has read many of the posts here that are concerned with Bush’s Great Stall turning into Obama’s Second Great Depression. Many of these posts have a partisan edge but they’re often grounded in objective fact. What say you, Vicki? Can you defend Obama & Co’s economic policies over the last two years.
Assuming we’re at net 45 or better, it’ll get interesting. I predict it won’t be a replay of 1994 where Clinton outplayed Gingrich by triangulating to the center. Obama doesn't have a centrist bone in his body.
By , at
Thu Oct 07, 06:04:00 PM:
I’ve been at net 55 for a few months now. I was at net 45 before that – an early call.
Vicki, I’m being objective. This is bigger than the “Tea Party” as it’s been narrowly defined by MSM. The Democrats have lost Independents and Reagan Democrats (including the white working class). They’ll really get killed if turnout is low among the young and Hispanics. Even blacks may not turn out. Motivating the base has been behind much of what Obama’s has done these last several weeks – it smacks of desperation.
You have to live in California and only travel in narrow circles, to think it’ll only be net 18.
If I were the Republicans I’d run anti-Obama/anti-Nancy ads the last ten days. This will further suppress Democratic turnout. If turnout is low, net 55 could be too low.
Capturing the Senate is harder, but now very possible. Even Christine O’Donnell has a shot.
***
Presumably Vicki has read many of the posts here that are concerned with Bush’s Great Stall turning into Obama’s Second Great Depression. Many of these posts have a partisan edge but they’re often grounded in objective fact. What say you, Vicki? Can you defend Obama & Co’s economic policies over the last two years.
Assuming we’re at net 45 or better, it’ll get interesting. I predict it won’t be a replay of 1994 where Clinton outplayed Gingrich by triangulating to the center. Obama doesn't have a centrist bone in his body.
By , at
Fri Oct 08, 02:14:00 AM:
There is no point in discussing anything with Pasadena Vicki, she of the "it's fine to check IDs at Townhall meetings with Congressmen but racist to check IDs when you are voting" or "I am polite but you dumb racist troglodytes are not" rant.
Forget the sin vergüenza.
By Dawnfire82, at
Fri Oct 08, 04:53:00 PM:
"Mark my words."
Lol - still 4 steps to go!
