Monday, August 30, 2010

If stock market analysts are extremely bearish... 

...does that mean it is time to buy?

For the first time since at least 1997, fewer than 29 percent of ratings for stocks covered by brokerages worldwide are “buys,” according to 159,919 recommendations compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts are turning more pessimistic even as they push up estimates for profit growth among Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies to 36 percent, the highest since 1988. . .

As we have noted so many times previously, following the Wall Street crowd of analysts is rarely the way to make money.

Hmmm. And Barry Ritholtz is not exactly a bull. Double hmmm.


By Anonymous Robert Arvanitis, at Mon Aug 30, 03:07:00 PM:

When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. -Arthur C. Clarke

First corollary of Clarke's law. When analysts are bullish, they are wrong. When analysts are bearish, they are not wrong.

Real issue is first order regulatory uncertainty, as well as second order unintended consequences of regulatory blundering.  

By Blogger TigerHawk, at Mon Aug 30, 03:17:00 PM:

Heh, good points all, Robert.  

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