Wednesday, April 14, 2010

No bounce 

The results of yet another poll indicate that President Obama has not enjoyed any sort of measurable bounce from the passage of the health care bill.
President Barack Obama's national standing has slipped to a new low after his victory on the historic health care overhaul, even in the face of growing signs of economic revival, according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll.

The survey shows the political terrain growing rockier for Obama and congressional Democrats heading into midterm elections, boosting Republican hopes for a return to power this fall.

Just 49 percent of people now approve of the job Obama's doing overall, and less than that — 44 percent — like the way he's handled health care and the economy. Last September, Obama hit a low of 50 percent in job approval before ticking a bit higher. His high-water mark as president was 67 percent in February of last year, just after he took office.
While George W. Bush would have been quite happy with those approval figures during virtually any part of his second term, it is hard to see how a president with 15 months on the job can punch back through the 50% level and stay there for the next couple of years. Most political experts would not bet against the re-election of an incumbent with a 50% approval rating (or near that figure), depending upon a myriad of other factors, not the least of which would be the identity and qualifications of his opponent. Perhaps the 2012 Democratic strategy will be to hope that no Republican challenger can catch fire and develop the kind of devoted following that Senator Obama generated in 2008.


By Anonymous MarkJ, at Wed Apr 14, 07:47:00 PM:

Meanwhile, deep within her Fortress of Solitude, Sarah Palin chuckles, whips up another moose burger, and says, "Obama, you hopeychangey bastard, I READ BOTH YOUR BOOKS!"


By Anonymous Brian Schmidt, at Wed Apr 14, 07:54:00 PM:

Intrade gives the Ds a 60% chance of winning in 2012:


Whether Intrade's predictions matter is another question. Personally I think it's mainly a tracking of conventional wisdom and not a crystal ball.  

By Anonymous What is to be done, at Wed Apr 14, 09:08:00 PM:

Dig the reference: "Rommel, you magnificent bastard. I read your book."  

By Blogger JPMcT, at Thu Apr 15, 12:22:00 AM:

Just as OJ Simpson did not enjoy a return to popularity after his victory in court.

Maybe it IS how you play the game, and NOT just if you win...  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Thu Apr 15, 08:11:00 PM:

it is hard to see how a president with 15 months on the job can punch back through the 50% level and stay there for the next couple of years.

Reagan did. He dropped from 60% after his inaguration down to the low 40's by April 1982 (15 mos in), slipped below 40% by the end of 1982 and then hit 60% following his reelection in 1984. By 1987, he was back down to 45% and ended his presidency at 58% or so. For a real roller coaster ride, check out Truman's numbers (individual approval ratings on left sidebar)  

By Anonymous Karis Lee, at Sun Sep 26, 03:17:00 AM:

It is so difficult to see how a president with 15 months on the job can back through 50% level.
Lets see...

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