Wednesday, April 14, 2010
The results of yet another poll indicate that President Obama has not enjoyed any sort of measurable bounce from the passage of the health care bill.
President Barack Obama's national standing has slipped to a new low after his victory on the historic health care overhaul, even in the face of growing signs of economic revival, according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll.While George W. Bush would have been quite happy with those approval figures during virtually any part of his second term, it is hard to see how a president with 15 months on the job can punch back through the 50% level and stay there for the next couple of years. Most political experts would not bet against the re-election of an incumbent with a 50% approval rating (or near that figure), depending upon a myriad of other factors, not the least of which would be the identity and qualifications of his opponent. Perhaps the 2012 Democratic strategy will be to hope that no Republican challenger can catch fire and develop the kind of devoted following that Senator Obama generated in 2008.
The survey shows the political terrain growing rockier for Obama and congressional Democrats heading into midterm elections, boosting Republican hopes for a return to power this fall.
Just 49 percent of people now approve of the job Obama's doing overall, and less than that — 44 percent — like the way he's handled health care and the economy. Last September, Obama hit a low of 50 percent in job approval before ticking a bit higher. His high-water mark as president was 67 percent in February of last year, just after he took office.
Intrade gives the Ds a 60% chance of winning in 2012:
Whether Intrade's predictions matter is another question. Personally I think it's mainly a tracking of conventional wisdom and not a crystal ball.
it is hard to see how a president with 15 months on the job can punch back through the 50% level and stay there for the next couple of years.
Reagan did. He dropped from 60% after his inaguration down to the low 40's by April 1982 (15 mos in), slipped below 40% by the end of 1982 and then hit 60% following his reelection in 1984. By 1987, he was back down to 45% and ended his presidency at 58% or so. For a real roller coaster ride, check out Truman's numbers (individual approval ratings on left sidebar)