Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Election Postulates 

1) Those Congressional politicians who prioritize an attempt to restructure the healthcare payment and delivery system in an effort to increase government control of it don't do well in elections. Hillarycare begat Gingrich. So far Obamacare has given New Jersey and Virginia Republican Governors and it has given Massachusetts Scott Brown. What will happen in November? It could be shocking.

2) American Presidents who make Middle East peace a priority in their foreign policy don't do so well in elections either, especially if they agitate aggressively for Israeli concessions to achieve it. It didn't work out so well for Carter (though many would argue that was probably the single accomplishment of his administration, it is not clear that the agreed peace achieved enhanced long term regional stability). It didn't work out so well for the first Bush Presidency - that's the one where Baker ordered the Israelis to stand down when Saddam sent missiles their way and then ordered them to agree to Oslo as well. And it may not work out so well for Obama, now that he has tried multiple times to increase the pressure on Netanyahu while remaining largely mum on other destabilizers in the region - Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, for instance.

To this, a knee jerk reaction might be to invoke the Mearsheimer Walt (smear) theorem and argue that the Israeli lobby wields too much electoral clout in the US. Um, the numbers make that theorem, well, not work. Instead, I would argue that American voters don't like it when we agitate for concessions to regional de-stabilizers - which would historically have been everybody besides Israel. It's not that complicated.

So - healthcare and middle east peace are political anchors. November 2010 will be interesting. And November 2012 will give us a new president.


By Blogger victoria, at Wed Mar 17, 12:41:00 PM:

I think that, no matter what you say, there will be no revolt in November and no new president in 2012. There is no candidate in the Republican Party that can carry both Republicans and Democrats. If you have one, show him/her to me. I will be tempted if the person is good. No Palin, Romney, or Gingrich. If the straw poll at the CPAC reveals the choice as Ron Paul, you people are in deep guano.  

By Anonymous Mad as Hell, at Wed Mar 17, 01:04:00 PM:

2012 is a lifetime away.

There will be a revolt in 2010. The Republicans just need to run a "national campaign" to ask voters to throw Nancy-Harry-Barney-Charlie out of their chairs. The Democrats will get clobbered. The Republicans should win back the House, at least.

Independents went for Obama 55% to 45% in 2008, because Obama was the anti-Bush. But in the recent VA-NJ-MA elections they went 2 to 1 for the Republican. Obama has Independents riled up. That won't change from here to November -- the depth of feeling may even get stronger. Economic news won't be better, and may even be worse.

Republicans in 2010 will need to worry that this anger is contained and doesn't turn into an anti-incumbent "vote them all out" wave.

After Nov 2010, much depends on how Obama reacts. I don't see him doing a Bill Clinton.  

By Blogger Buku, at Wed Mar 17, 02:06:00 PM:

Clubber Lang, Rocky 3.  

By Blogger victoria, at Wed Mar 17, 05:56:00 PM:

No revolt, no upheaval, no way.

Same old, same old. Mark my words.  

By Anonymous Mad as Hell, at Wed Mar 17, 06:41:00 PM:

Victoria, please define "revolt." You seem to require blood in the streets.  

By Blogger JPMcT, at Wed Mar 17, 09:36:00 PM:

Victoria seems to think that people will be voting FOR a Republican, rather than what will actually happen...they will be voting AGAINST Obama.

The Republicans could amost run ANYBODY.

If the Democrats impose health care by degree, rather than their usual and customary legislative trickery and bribery, expect many Democrat incumbents to head for the door before the election to make way for new candidates who are not "tainted".

Isn't it amazing how badly these people have screwed things up. I had heretofore been under the impression that you had to be a Republican to grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

Even if Obama did promise a 3000% reduction in health care premiums!  

By Blogger Assistant Village Idiot, at Wed Mar 17, 10:12:00 PM:

Too soon to tell. 2010 will see Republican gains. Hopefully it will also show improved models of Republicans as well. The former is the Tea Partiers first order of business, but the latter is prominent in their thinking as well.  

By Blogger Purple Avenger, at Thu Mar 18, 01:54:00 AM:

There is no candidate in the Republican Party that can carry both Republicans and Democrats. If you have one, show him/her to me.

Recent polling has shown if the election were held again today, McLame wins.

People won't be voting for the Republican they'll be voting against Obama, just they voted against McLame because he was successfully portrayed by the media as a Bush 3rd term.

What people (incorrectly) assumed previously was:

(!Bush) > Bush)

The false logic behind that assumption has been shown to them amply by Obama and this congress.

They will not make that mistake again.  

By Anonymous E Hines, at Thu Mar 18, 08:21:00 AM:

If the Obama health care deform is passed, it won't matter whether the Democrats are tossed out on their ears in 2010/2012. The damage wrought and the intrusion of the federal [sic] government into the lives of innocent citizens and the loss of the free market economy will be permanent. Just as the Democratic party recovered from Hillarycare, they'll recover from the Obama disaster, but this time, their government takeover will be in place.

And that's been their purpose all along--since FDR. That's why so many Democrats are willing to sacrifice their short term jobs--this will be a nation-changing victory.

Eric Hines  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Thu Mar 18, 10:29:00 AM:

Obama's ONLY objective is to destroy the middle class in America! He and his owners believe they have 8 years to accomplish this.
If you and others convince the people who pull Obama's strings that he only has 4 years, they will take drastic steps.
The most likely is for Obama to have more of his muslim brothers attack the US. Obama declares martial law and puts most of us in camps.
So, let's not talk too loudly about the new president in 2012.  

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