Friday, July 31, 2009

Is US GDP at a bottom? 

American GDP fell 1% in the second quarter (according to the preliminary report).

The bad news: This quarter marked the first time in more than 60 years that GDP has fallen for four consecutive quarters. Yes, it is worse than it was in 1974-1975, and that really sucked.

The good news: The decline this quarter was less than "expected," so the pessimists are wrong, for once.

The bad news: The first quarter was revised down from a decline of 5.5% to 6.4%, so the pessimists were right back then.

The good news: It's a Friday in the summer.


By Anonymous Anonymous, at Fri Jul 31, 09:41:00 AM:

From Link:

Is it half full or half empty? Bloomberg News reports it differently: "The first 12 months of the U.S. recession saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed."

Obama & Co have made this recession longer by adding headwinds. If they had done nothing we'd have been better off. Ironically, right now it's the strength of the private sector that's carrying us out of this recession. It's been really important that the rest of the world has sucked more.

We can expect a sugar rush from Stimulus in 2010 on top of a natural recovery, but we'd have been better off just dropping $100 bills from helicopters this year rather than the silly spending we'll have next year. This is by design.

There's a fight going on between the private and public sectors. Obama & Co want to co-opt some of the private sector into one a big government controlled zaibatsu. So he's using carrots and sticks with the likes of Goldman, GE and google. Join the borg or else.

Comment of the day: if the government couldn't execute a cash for clunkers program how are they going to run healthcare?

Good news: Larry Carlton is sitting in with Steely Dan tonight and tomorrow at the Beacon. I'm going tomorrow. Get along Kid Charlemagne!  

By Anonymous John, at Fri Jul 31, 10:15:00 AM:

Bad news ... U6 is going to go over 20%, and we won't 'recover' without the consumer, and until we properly address credit cards, CRE, the huge number of foreclosed or underwater homes, etc. The USG artificially propping stuff up will only prolong the inevitable.

Good news ... I have some Bolivar Belicoso Finos, Plenty of Bass and some Sammy Smith's. Plus I'm feeling like my back will stand some golf this weekend.  

By Blogger PD Quig, at Fri Jul 31, 01:29:00 PM:

The good news: Consumers are spending like sober indians...and will be for many years.

The bad news: Consumers are spending like sober indians...and will be for many years.

The ugly news: Consumers can only spend based on income now and cannot / will not return to credit binge spending. Therefore, lower GDP numbers are not a recessionary dip. They are a new normal.  

By Anonymous WLindsayWheeler, at Fri Jul 31, 06:43:00 PM:

Hell NO! We haven't reached bottom. It is still going down. There will be some upswings here and there---don't be fooled. We are turning into the Weimar Republic. They are printing money out of thin air. I imagine Geithner gave the Vice President of China all our coal reserves just like Bill Clinton gave the Chicoms satelite and rocket technology as downpayment on our non payment of our treasury securities. They are selling the country to the Chicoms so they continue to buy our debt.

While the Feds print money out of thin air. There is no let up in sight.

These yahoos in congress and in the White House KNOW exactly Nothing about economics 101. More spending by the Federal government and this clunker buy out is NOT economic stimilus. These people are fools. It is only going to get worse.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Sat Aug 01, 04:08:00 PM:

Was it a real or nominal GDP decline?  

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