Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Don't look now, but Chris Christie has opened up a 15 point lead over Jon Corzine in the latest poll. And you don't usually see non-endorsements like this in New Jersey. Something different is going on.
Beat Corzine here, and you scare Democrats everywhere.
I'm impressed by the depth of anti-Corzine dissatisfaction.
The Governor went negative on TV four weeks ago with lots of advertising, indicating a pretty shocking level of desperation. Candidates usually go negative much later in the process, and this advertising effort came after Corzine met with Rahm Emmanuel in Washington to talk about White House concern over his race.
Christie has been running a very low-effort campaign so far, with relatively few appearances and little apparant organization.
Despite these two factors, Christie has managed to widen his lead, according to this poll. The voters are well and truly ticked off and are sending a loud message to big spenders- Democrat and Republican alike.
One more point. If this keeps up it wouldn't shock me to see Menendez substituted for Corzine on the ballot, with Corzine sent back to Washington as Senator. Of course, that would mean Menedez would have to become a resident of New Jersey again...
The Democrats have a very useful habit of substituting an unpopular figure with a slightly more palatable one at the last minute in order to win elections. They were able to keep the ethically-challenged Bob Toricelli's seat in Democrat hands by swapping him out with Frank Laughingstock.
I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Democrats plugged some less unpopular person into Corzine's place to try to keep the Garbage State governorship.
I agree with the two posters above, and had posted a comment elsewhere to the same effect.
The sitting Democrat Governor is 15 points down in a Democrat-leaning state, and it is only July! This surfaced after he signed the budget -- which action usually gives a boost to an incumbent.
Realistic estimates are -- based on a non-partisan projection from the fiscal wing of the Office of Legislative Services, OLS -- that this purported "financial genius" has somehow handed us an $8 billion dollar actual hole in our state's finances. That would be $8.8 Billion minus the $800 Million projected revenues.
And, couple that with the fact that there is no appreciable prospect for relief from skyrocketing property taxes -- no one's idea of his empty promise of a 40% cut in 4 years!
Rather than trying to bring people together, he's been the most blatantly partisan and redistributionist Governor since the McGreevey/Codey Administration.
And now he's busy grinding out a series of intensely misleading and negative TV ads, trying to personally malign Chris Christie.
The President arrived in the midst of the debacle to try to somehow staunch the bleeding.
You have already posted the photo of their joint appearance and the comically awkward on-stage "embrace."
Imagine what those numbers will look like come early fall when the financial picture really begins to sink in with the public!
Eight Billion in the hole!
The switch is coming! This has all the earmarks of a disastrous defeat for the Democrats. Here comes the "B team," à la Bob Torricelli.
Christie may actually be doing Corzine a favor, having already asked him to leave now!
This has the smell similar to the Grey Davis debacle in California.
That led to Ahnold being elected Governator, and we can all see how well that worked out. Well, not at all, really.
Mr. Christie may be the most upstanding and honest politician in old New Jersey at this point in time, but I think the horse has left the barn already, and the barn is probably burned down, to boot.
There frankly ain't too much that Christie can do to fix New Jersey's problems without goring some powerful interests; he would need a strong majority in the legislature to undue the damage that has been done.
As the economic situation in New Jersey continues to deteriorate in the next few years, if Mr. Christie is the Governor, the Republicans will surely be blamed.
Oh, I don't know....there are plenty of Democrats who recognize that the public employee unions have put New Jersey in a bad spot. The new Governor, whomever he is, has very significant powers to change that reality. The unions aren't popular with anyone.
Here is the link to the Star Ledger story about the $8 Billion dollar hole in our state's finances, along with a few key grafs from the story.
N.J. short $8 billion, report says
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie yesterday said Gov. Jon Corzine should quit his re-election bid in "shame" after a new nonpartisan report showed the state faces an $8 billion structural deficit for the next fiscal year.
. . .
The shortfall was detailed by the Office of Legislative Services, the Legislature's nonpartisan research arm. It was requested by Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. (R-Union), who called the potential deficit "the largest in history."
OLS calculated a $8 billion shortfall by counting all mandatory increases in state funding and assuming all programs currently in the budget would be included next year. It also reported the Unemployment Trust Fund deficit could top $2.2 billion.
. . . .
While I'm sure the Democrats would love to do another candidate bait-and-switch in New Jersey, aside from the problem of trying to find a replacement who can overcome the fact that there's no Republican control anywhere in Trenton or Washington for the new candidate to blame the state's problems on, the difference between Corzine and Toricelli is personal wealth. Bob was corrupt, but had nowhere near the resources of Jon both to finance his own campaign and to fight the state party's efforts to throw him overboard.
If Corzine doesn't want to go quietly (and with his ego, it's doubtful he would), the governor has the money to take the battle to court and basically take the rest of the N.J. Democratic apparatus down with him if he wanted to (in fact, this would probably be the best way Christie could not only win, but have a chance to actually get a supportive state legislature that wouldn't fight every single reform effort over the next two years to the death).
The beat goes on: Dozens arrested in NJ corruption sweep.
What do you bet every single arrestee is a Democrat?
Oops. I over-stated it. There were apparently 44 arrests. Here is the lede from today's NY Times. Of the public officials, there was one Republican.
"A two-year corruption and international money-laundering investigation stretching from the Jersey Shore to Brooklyn to Israel and Switzerland culminated in charges against 44 people on Thursday, including three New Jersey mayors, two state assemblymen and five rabbis, the authorities said."