Sunday, April 26, 2009
Pandemic
Apropos of nothing, check out this nifty map (via Paul Kedrosky) of the progression of plague across Europe during the "Black Death" of the mid-fourteenth century.
Plague, of course, is bacterial, and its bubonic version (the most common) spreads via "blocked" fleas (friendly reminder that the TH Father was an expert on 14th century Europe, and I once wrote a moderately learned post on the subject). The map above shows how quickly the disease can spread when flea-ridden men and animals travel by foot. The pattern would be different in the jet era, with hot spots emerging around transportation centers. Let's hope -- no, let's pray -- we do not see similar such maps produced for swine flu in the coming months.
9 Comments:
By 
, at
Sun Apr 26, 12:34:00 PM:
Is there a similar map for the flu epidemic of 1918-1919?
By , at
Sun Apr 26, 12:47:00 PM:
To have any chance of controlling a Pandemic, governments need to be able to control their borders. Eventually, either from this Swine Flu outbreak or another one years from now there will be another Pandemic. When that happens those of us who tried to stop the illegal immigrant influx over the last 40 years will still be remembered as hate filled racists. Even doctors like my father who argued to his dying day in favor of protecting our people. It was more important to shut him up for political reasons than listen to him about the reality of contagious diseases.
By , at
Sun Apr 26, 04:30:00 PM:
Did you ever read 'A Distant Mirror' by Barbara Tuchman? The 14th was a nasty, brutal century.
By 
Unknown, at
Sun Apr 26, 05:29:00 PM:
You might find this of interest:
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2009/04/links-pandemic.html
By Christopher Chambers, at
Sun Apr 26, 08:19:00 PM:
I know you're still dovish in immigration, TH, so do you think the US should truly get Draconian on the Mexico border? Illegals could bring the disease right into the heartland, right?
By , at
Mon Apr 27, 01:19:00 AM:
Re Southern Roots: Coming Anarchy blog has an animated map showing the spread of the pandemic in the USA in 1918.
By TigerHawk, at
Mon Apr 27, 11:42:00 AM:
Chris, no I do not. The legality or illegality of immigration has nothing to do with the transmission of disease. Better to ban all air traffic from Mexico than worry about sick people crossing the Rio Grande.
By , at
Mon Apr 27, 11:44:00 AM:
I don't know that illegals are any greater threat than normal, everyday commerce. Mexico is so important a market for both us and Canada, as we are for Mexico, that you'd expect diseases to spread pretty quickly.
As far as controlling the border goes though, I'm in favor of it for lots of reasons even if I am in favor of pretty open immigration policies. Keep out disease, keep the ag sector as safe as we can, and keep down crime and terrorists. Other than those guys, I pretty much welcome most if not all others. Who else will pay back our debts?
By , at
Tue Apr 28, 04:30:00 PM:
