Wednesday, January 14, 2009
A short note on the perils of engaging Iran
Yesterday, the topic of engaging Iran was back in the news. Two items seem relevant.
Hillary Clinton told the Senate that the Obama administration will follow the precedent of the Carter, Reagan, and Clinton administrations and try -- again -- to "engage directly with Iran."
Clinton said flatly yesterday that Bush's effort has "not worked" and that President-elect Barack Obama's team is "very open to looking to a positive, effective way of engaging with Iran." She acknowledged that the effort represents a gamble and insisted that a nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable to Obama, but she added: "We won't know what we're capable of achieving until we're actually there working on it."
Meanwhile, undoubtedly orchestrated "demonstrators" in Iran were "welcoming" Barack Obama with the usual courtesy: Burning him in effigy. Yes, there are pictures.
The interesting question is whether the Iranian demonstration against Barack Obama was a response to Mrs. Clinton, or whether Mrs. Clinton was responding to the "demonstrators." Of course, you might argue that the two events were a coincidence, but the world will see one as a response to the other. It seems to me that neither sequence bodes well for American-Iranian relations.
That said, I am now going to irritate most of you: I actually do support a "cold war" engagement with Iran. We should do what we can to build official and unofficial ties, including diplomatic relations, if possible, and at the same time fight them in the shadows with tooth and nail, beak and talon. The arguments in favor of this position are too lengthy for this post, but come down to the point that it is the least bad alternative.
11 Comments:
By 
, at
Wed Jan 14, 09:49:00 AM:
I always enjoyed watching Yasser Arafat negotiate; he was reasonable at the bargaining table and handled most of the tough issues as "non-negotiable pre-conditions."
Hillie is completely unqualified for the State, it requires a duplomat not a thief.
Just imagine the idiots in Teheran. They KNOW that innocent Hillie and innocent Chimpy the Kenyan HAVE to knock on their door and beg for a meeting.
Just think of the subtle things Iran could demand as a precondition to answering this knock.
By , at
Wed Jan 14, 11:17:00 AM:
TH, how about we compromise here? We engage, as you want, with the ruins, as I want? Sounds fair to me.
By , at
Wed Jan 14, 11:26:00 AM:
TH, the question is: How do we get from here to there? In principle, we should have a means of direct communication with all countries/their governments.
In this case, however, it seems that we will have to give something up to get something we want. As soon as Iran realizes that that diplomatic relations are something we don't have, that we want, there will be a price attached.
Soooo, what are you willing to give up?
M.E.
By 
Diane Wilson, at
Wed Jan 14, 11:51:00 AM:
Any comment about European "hard power" as a counter to the Russia-Ukraine gas price pissing contest....
applies to engagement with Iran, in huge multiplies. And that ain't gonna happen.
By , at
Wed Jan 14, 12:06:00 PM:
You can't negotiate with these people. They aren't rational actors. At least with the USSR we had the deterrent of MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction. These guys want to die and be martyrs to Allah. They'd be glad to if only they could wipe out a significant portion of the West.
JLW III
By , at
Wed Jan 14, 12:21:00 PM:
Iran has been engaged through the European Union talks for many years with no success.
By Dawnfire82, at
Wed Jan 14, 03:58:00 PM:
"These guys want to die and be martyrs to Allah. They'd be glad to if only they could wipe out a significant portion of the West."
That's true for some, but not all. It is hypothetically possible for Iran to behave in a rational manner, and the further away in time that we get from the Revolution the more likely that is to happen.
The trick is preventing the fuckers who are in power now from doing anything too terribly destructive in the meantime.
By , at
Wed Jan 14, 04:48:00 PM:
Iran has already demonstrated how they conduct themselves diplomatically through the process of the United Nations Security Council inspections of their enrichment facilities. Stall, stall, stall, then refuse compliance. The Quoran implores Muslims to kill Jews. The Iranian regime is determined to eliminate Israel as a Jewish state. What's to negotiate? China buys their oil. Russia builds their nuke plants, and supplies them high tech weapons and equipment. Why should they negotiate with Obama?
If the U.S. responds soon militarily, Israel will be hit by Iran conventional missiles, and probably survive. If we wait, Iran may be able to explode a nuclear bomb above Israel which could wipe out all electronics in Israel, and leave her defenseless. Then Hamas, Hezbollah, Fatah, Islamic Brotherhood, Al-Queda, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and others invade.......end of story for Israel.
I believe the only way to resolve this issue is to attack all of Iran's income streams. Destroy oil processing facilities, shipping infrastructure, trade routes, interstate roadways, bridges, pumping stations, railway systems, etc. , only then will the regime be unable to continue to wield power over the majority of Iranians who only want to live their lives in peace.
By Cas, at
Wed Jan 14, 07:12:00 PM:
"These guys want to die and be martyrs to Allah. They'd be glad to if only they could wipe out a significant portion of the West."
The current regime of "mad mullahs" want everyone else to die for allah and be martyrs, not necessarily them. The people of Iran are some of the most pro-US in the middle east; I would say the most pro-US of any Islamic country, but reading Michael Totten has convinced me that the Islamic country that is the most pro-US actually Kosovo!
By , at
Wed Jan 14, 09:54:00 PM:
Iran bought themselves some protection in these waning days of the Bush administration.
By , at
Thu Jan 15, 04:22:00 AM:
I think Totten is nuts. Kosovo has been pretty busy engaging in kicking out all the Christians, wholesale destruction of churches and synagogues, and generally doing what Muslims always do when they gain power. The idea that they're pro-US is insane. Being infidels, we don't get credit for delivering Kosovo to them, Allah does. A Muslim may like you for helping him, but he will never feel grateful that you helped him, that is reserved for other Muslims or Allah himself.
