Thursday, October 09, 2008
The intellectual poverty of Republicans
David Frum nails down a point that has been flitting around inside my brain for a while.
American voters are staggering under the worst financial crisis since at least 1982. Asset values are tumbling, consumer spending is contracting, and a recession is visibly on the way. This crisis follows upon seven years in which middle-class incomes have stagnated and Republican economic management has been badly tarnished. Anybody who imagines that an election can be won under these circumstances by banging on about William Ayers and Jeremiah Wright is … to put it mildly … severely under-estimating the electoral importance of pocketbook issues.
We conservatives are sending a powerful, inadvertent message with this negative campaign against Barack Obama's associations and former associations: that we lack a positive agenda of our own and that we don’t care about the economic issues that are worrying American voters.
True. Yes, John McCain may well have been the only Republican who would be even this close to Barack Obama at this point. The unpopularity of George W. Bush, the undisciplined Republican Congress of 2002-2006, the war in Iraq, and now the sorry spectacle of the financial crisis and a Republican Secretary of the Treasury on bended knee to Nancy Pelosi all add up to a gale at the back of the Democrats. McCain has kept it plausible, at least until recently, in part because Obama and Biden have campaigned not to lose rather than to win and the press ignores those problems that have surfaced. But McCain should get credit for running a pretty good campaign (criticism of his debate performance notwithstanding).
The problem is, the McCain campaign is out of ideas. It has not proposed any major new idea to provoke public discussion, to excite its base, or to give us all something to vote for. The Republicans appear to be out of gas, and I fear that it is too late to refill the tank. If John McCain offers new policy ideas now they will not be taken seriously because they will seem desperate.
If you doubt me, ask yourself this: What will the McCain administration do in its first 100 days? We know what Barack Obama will do -- raise our taxes (or at least my taxes), go about restructuring the healthcare system, re-regulate business from the agencies, try to negotiate his way to peace European-style, accelerate the withdrawal from Iraq, and appoint judges that turn the Constitution upside down. Since I dislike all that stuff (except maybe the health care piece) I am going to vote for McCain, but I am still left with the question, what will John McCain do? It is much less clear, at least to me. Conservatives are consigned, therefore, to vote for a leader only, not a program or even a way out of Dodge. I can live with that given the alternative, but in times of economic trouble it is not the way to win the election.
23 Comments:
By 
, at
Thu Oct 09, 04:22:00 AM:
what will John McCain do?
immigration 'reform'
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 06:26:00 AM:
It's funny, that first comment was pretty much what I was going to say.
The GOP needs to wake up in a couple of ways. Why anybody who thinks that illegal immigration is an important issue would consider themselves Republican is kind of a mystery. If all of those voters could make their voices heard, without seeming racist, they may come to the realization that they need a whole new party. Because the R's love Mexicans when vote time comes around.
Fiscal responsibility? Again, not this GOP. You must be thinking of some other party.
Mccain in the debate said that he wants to directly buy up all of those bad mortgages, and then in the next breath said that he wants to reign in spending. (?) All of the "R's" out there, who aren't happy with this bailout situation need to make themselves known to the party, or begin to admit that there may be need for a new party altogether. So far, the bailout was expensive, and seems to have done nothing. And the Republicans didn't do anything to stop it. I thought that somebody would come along and offer up a much more simple, and less expensive solution. (perhaps someone did and I just didn't hear about it.)
Abortion? Not much going to happen there. So I guess they can count on that vote.
Guns and taxes, that's who the Republicans can still appeal to. That will work when the economy is ok.
The GOP needs to sit down and think about what exactly it does stand for, here and now.
Mccain also said that he wants to cut military spending, as in contractors who make the equipment.
You're not making this easy on me John.
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 07:03:00 AM:
Obama also will try to pass a bunch of aggressive pro-labor bills that will make running a business a bunch more expensive.
You're right about no other Republican would be this close to Obama. Look, in '76 people flocked to Jimmy Carter and the "Grits and Fritz" campaign because the Nixon Administration had exhausted them. Carter was the fresh face from the New South.
Obama is the fresh face of New Politics. We need him to be a Roosevelt or a Kennedy, but he could end up being Carter and, as a result, a one-term president. Once he gets into office, he'll find that campaigning was a breeze compared to what he'll be facing.
McCain has done a good job keep the election as "close" as it is now. He's also a good man. But the Republicans are lost, they've pushed out the moderates (the NYT Magazine piece on Tom Davis, the moderate Republican from Virginia who isn't running for reelection to his House seat is a case in point), and they don't appeal to many suburbanites in key swing states they need to win. Their message has to be much more inclusive.
Finally, in 1992 the Clinton campaign reminded itself that "it's the economy, stupid," and that's all the Obama campaign needs to remind itself for the next 3+ weeks. McCain should get great credit for piloting his campaign through the gale -- he has a lot of courage. It probably won't be enough, but he's to be admired for his guts.
The Centrist
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 07:22:00 AM:
Don't worry TH about the one you may like TH, healthcare, in will implode before the 31 years it took for affirmative action loans to implode. If you really think you want it just look very hard at what England, Canada and Cuba actually have. Costs will rise dramatically, waiting lines for care will lengthen dramatically and the quality of providers will evaporate. Have another glass of Kool Aid.
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 07:38:00 AM:
Perhaps losing total power for 4 years will wake the GOP up..
By 
Dawnfire82, at
Thu Oct 09, 08:07:00 AM:
I think it's more likely that the introduction of Democratic total power will wake the general population up. Radicalism leaks from the Democratic Party like at no other time in history. Just wait until they start trying to enact such agendas.
With a Congressional majority and a weak Democratic President? Immigration 'reform.' Tax hikes. Business regulation. Nationalized healthcare. Fighting back against the Heller tide. Re-enacting full drilling bans. Accelerated withdrawal from Iraq, and either throwing in the towel in Afghanistan or invading Pakistan. And that's just the most likely stuff.
Seated Democrats have talked about nationalizing industries. About setting up 'war crime' tribunals to pillory the Bush Administration. About enacting the 'Fairness Doctrine' and extending it to the Internet.
Don't forget about the organized 'digital brownshirting' and legal claims to shut down anti-Obama political speech in this campaign season. And all underpinned by a super-creepy Cult of Personality.
I could argue that next few years will be the greatest leap toward a socialized pseudo-police state in our history, and given what the Dems have talked about *publicly* for the last few years, I wouldn't be absurdly alarmist.
I'll be acquiring an AR-15 soon, I think.
By Charlottesvillain, at
Thu Oct 09, 09:09:00 AM:
The Republicans deserve the wipeout many predict (and I usually vote their way). They have been a disaster on many fronts, and the current financial crisis is squarely on their shoulders, as is the abomination that will result from the current attempts to fix the crisis. The selling point for Republicans has often been they are better for business. Well guess what? The economy is a wreck on their watch. To paraphrase an old saying, if the election is between a socialist and a socialist, voters will choose the socialist every time.
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 09:28:00 AM:
Chartlottsvillian said, "the current financial crisis is squarely on their shoulders"
Don't go all "Pelosi" on us. The Democrats control the House and the Senate is infested with RINOs. The change in lending laws was signed by Clinton. Barney Frank blocked tightening of Fannie and Freddies lending regulations. This is a bipartisan problem, with one party claiming that they are innocent. Senator Obama might win in November, but we shouldn't start rewriting the history books so soon.
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 09:43:00 AM:
Dawnfire82, I realize you are more knowledgable than I being a US Army vet, but I am making do with a coach double barrel shotgun [18"]to minimize collateral and maximize intended target hit with a supply of 00 buckshot. The gun has never been used even for target practice but it is available.Voter fraud, ACORN and a clear socialist mentality is not what a capitalist country should be about.
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 10:39:00 AM:
I don't buy the "out of ideas" charge because it's a big, unprovable slam that is beside the point. There is a foundation of ideas on which McCain bases his quest and they are well known. I would not confuse that with the smoke coming out the chimney.
Also it is not too hard to imagine what McCain would do when elected. He would prepare legislation to assist the expansion of domestic energy and restrain Federal spending to name just two.
It is true I think that the economic tumult is a game changer, but that will play out over a long time and I don't think it is reasonable to expect either candidate to fully understand what is happening and how to deal with it, yet. I rather they hold their remedies for a bit. Things are moving too fast still.
It is exasperating to stare at the strong possibility of an Obama presidency. I think, though, the sale is not yet made. Many of us are disturbed by what we fear is a big Obama head fake. We don't really think he's going to go where he says he will.
Aggressively raising concerns about who Obama is, and where his roots are, and what he stands for in truth, are important questions. The election will turn on those questions. Whenever McCain has raised doubts about Obama, his fitness to lead, his integrity, and his values and whether they are the values being presented by his campaign, whenever McCain has taken that approach people have responded and he has risen in the polls. The reason is that these questions resonate with people. It's the questions people are asking themselves. It is not unfair to do this.
If McCain continues to raise these questions he can win. Let's face it. For the next 30 days, that's the goal here.
By Charlottesvillain, at
Thu Oct 09, 11:12:00 AM:
Tyree,
There is plenty of blame to go around here, and I'm not implying the Democrats are not also all mixed up in this, but it takes place on their watch, so the perception is that it is a failure of Republican governance. Frankly, I find it hard to argue that it is not.
By Dawnfire82, at
Thu Oct 09, 11:15:00 AM:
Anonymous 9:43 - A perfectly logical line of reasoning. But my reasons for acquiring an AR are a little different.
1) Availability. I don't want to rely on the likely incoming government to preserve my ability to get such a weapon in the future. This is the party of gun control. At least if I already own it, they've got to come and get it.
2) Range and accuracy. Shotguns are fantastic for things like home defense and room clearing, but when I take to the hills Red Dawn style I want something that can kill from 300 meters.
3) Penetration. Exit wounds are deadly; more bleeding and shock for fewer shots.
4) Capacity. 30 rounds to a magazine, as opposed to 8 or 10. (as is typical for shotguns)
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 11:20:00 AM:
Dawnfire, you are one scary dude.
TH, weren't you the one that was coaching from the sidelines a couple of weeks ago urging the McCain to slam Obama with the Ayers smear? With a follow up punch on Rev. Wright? Thought so.
Anyone who thinks these attacks are helping win votes for McCain while folks are opening up their 3rd quarter 401 (k) statements, well all I can say is I have a bridge in Alaska I'd like to sell you.
McCain has run out ideas, run of out logic ($300 billion "surge" to have the gov't bailout of homeowners??--That'll play to the base. Not), and he's being run out of states that carried Bush in '04. Just ask voters in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico.
But go ahead, keep coaching from the sidelines. It seems to be working. For Obama. LOL
By Dawnfire82, at
Thu Oct 09, 11:50:00 AM:
"Dawnfire, you are one scary dude."
I should frame this comment. That is absolutely the first time that I've ever been called such. Most people find me to be personally amiable, unintimidating, and unassuming.
Regarding the latest polls showing amazing gains for Obama... I simply don't trust them. PA went from statistical tie to 15 point Obama lead in what, 3 weeks? Florida has been comfortably in McCain's bag since about March, but now it's Obama's too, plummeting at the same time?
That sounds like a crock of shit to me, and it taints the rest of the polling results as well.
Maybe that's why Democrats are always shocked when their guy loses. It's well known that the polls at the end of a presidential campaign usually show them as being several (even 10) points ahead of where they really are. Even Bush was like 6 points behind Gore when he won in 2000, according to these polls. (in Florida, no less)
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 12:13:00 PM:
I vehemently disagree with the intellectual poverty argument, but agree the GOP has failed at leadership and governance. Ever since 9/11 the GOP has engaged in this make-nice bipartisanship mantra that has been entirely one-sided, or at least unrequited by the left. I suppose the idea is that we are "a country at war, and we must stop the factionalism", or some such quaintness.
This is a complete abdication of responsibility by Republicans, whose first duty is to promote Republican ideas and governance. Now, we inherit their failure, and America is on the verge of seeing avowed socialism dominate the Congress, the executive and our economy.
I wonder if the era ahead will see immigration of our best and most capable, just as Europe has seen over the last fifty years.
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 02:22:00 PM:
Dawnfire --
I think you can toss out polling predictions. We've never had an African American candidate who was a true contender before. Polling predicated on past electoral activity is off-point.
You could call this a plus for either side, frankly. Heard the Bradley effect being tossed about in a few quarters (even here, I believe).
My money, however, is on a huge unanticipated voter turnout in favor of Obama.
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 02:27:00 PM:
MY FELLOW AMERICANS! WE HAVE THE SMOKING GUN, THE GAME CHANGER, THE OCTOBER SURPRISE!
IF we can get this into the MSM Sen. McCain WILL WIN the Election, PERIOD!
Sen. Obama, from HIS office in the US Senate sent E-MAILS to a RADICAL Kenyan Presidential candidate ODINGA suggesting campaign strategies, advice and support. Sen. Obama has made SEVERAL phone calls also to Odinga along with several e-mails. Odinga of Kenya HAD SIGNED a document promising to IMPOSE STRICT SHRIA MUSLIM LAW in Kenya if the Muslims would vote for and help him gets elected. ODINGA did NOT win the election, but he and his Muslim supporters have instigated RADICAL VIOLENCE in Kenya, including burning of 100’s of Christian churches. SEATOR OBAMA SUPPORTED THIS RADICAL, HE SUPPORTED THIS ODINGA AND WE HAVE THE ACTUAL E-MAILS, WE HAVE THE PROOF THAT A SITTING SENATOR, OBAMA, FROM HIS SENATE OFFICE HAS PHONED ENCOURAGMENT AND ADVICE! We have an active Senator, from his TAXPAYER PAID OFFICE ON OUR DIME CALLING AND E-MAILING A RADICAL IN KENYA DURING THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARIES! THIS IS NOT OLD NEWS, THIS IS THE FINAL STRAW, THE MSM WILL HAVE TO COVER THIS STORY AND COMBINED WITH WILLIAM AYERS AND REV. WRIGHT A STRONG PATTERN IS FINALY EMERGING!!! PLEASE, PLEASE E-MAIL, CALL, WRITE, DO ALL YOU CAN AS US CITIZENS TO GET THE WORD SPREAD! THE PROFF, THE E-MAILS WILL BE PRESENTED ON HANNITY & COMBS ON MONDAY NIGHT 10/13/2008 AT 9pm EST! WE MUST GET THIS INTO THE PUBLIC FORUMS! THIS IS THE OCTOBER SURPRISE, THE FINAL NAIL, THE SMOKING GUN!
Mark Garnett
By Georg Felis, at
Thu Oct 09, 02:28:00 PM:
The problem with "new" ideas coming from Washington is normally the price tag.
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 02:30:00 PM:
I would ask the OP to explain what difference POCKET BOOK issues will make when we have ZERO freedoms and get attacked again ? Obama has radical world views, works with ACORN, that will steal future elections, so who the heck cares if we have money, we will HVE NO FREDOM, we will be a SOCILIST Country... SO KEEP YOUR POCKET BOOK ISSUES UP YOUR REAR END, I WANT SAFTEY, FREEDOM, AMERICAN VALUES !!!
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 02:51:00 PM:
There's actually an interesting parallel here to the Canadian election to be held next Tuesday.
The incumbent Conservative government has preached a stay-the-course message, which in the past week has failed to resonate with people worrying about their stock market losses. Now in Canada things are much better financially than in the US - no bank bailouts, net job growth, government surplus, etc. A stay-the-course message actually makes sense.
The Liberal party wants to implement a massive new carbon tax system (they claim revenue neutrality), and massively increase spending in areas such as nationalized child care. They also want to implement emergency financial measures to prevent people from losing their savings or their homes.
I guess we're a bunch of nanny-state loving sheeple, because Liberal support has jumped significantly since they started claiming they'll solve all our problems with our own money.
By The Pretentious Ignoramus, at
Thu Oct 09, 03:08:00 PM:
Well said, sir.
I have officially bid farewell to the Republican Party, for many of the same reasons you have stated here.
My new mantra: Goodbye To All That.
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 06:28:00 PM:
Let's not revise history and forget that McCain/Palin didn't just keep it close but were in the lead only 1 month ago, regardless of "the unpopularity of George W. Bush, the undisciplined Republican Congress of 2002-2006, the war in Iraq". One month ago Obama/Biden were on the ropes and all the talk was how they were "out of ideas". The only thing that caused the reversal of fortunes was a sudden stock market crash.
Also, let's not forget there is life past the election day. Beating on Obama's ties with Ayers and Wright may help to assure that neither of those two will see the inside of the White House even if Obama wins. It may help to assure that Ayers will get no federal funding for his cockamanie educational experiments. Likewise, beating on Obama reckless promise to sit down with Ah-Dinner-Jacket may help to assure that he never does it. This is to the benefit of the whole country.
By , at
Thu Oct 09, 09:26:00 PM:
TH:
In this decade there have been many great opportunities for the GOP to assert itself as the honest voice for small but efficient gov't and equal opportunity under the law. It has managed to squander them all.
Your indictment is on the nose.
Thank you for saying it.
