Sunday, April 27, 2008
News from the proxy war
The Iranians, for whom the taking of hostages is just another tool of statecraft, are apparently back to their old tricks:
Five British hostages who were kidnapped in Iraq almost a year ago are being held inside Iran by Revolutionary Guards, according to two separate sources in the Middle East and London.
The hostages were handed over to the Revolutionary Guards by their Iraqi kidnappers last November, the sources believe. One of the sources said they were being held in the western Iranian city of Hamadan.
If confirmed, the involvement of Revolutionary Guards would be seen as evidence that senior figures in the Iranian government had backed the decision to hold them in the country.
Quel surprise.
Meanwhile, Iran's transnational proxy is preparing for war. Don't blame the neocons or Fox; this story comes from the Guardian:
The dead of southern Lebanon watch the living from the sides of buildings and from lampposts, their faces staring out defiantly from posters, heads often superimposed on bodies of generic men in uniform. These are Hizbollah's martyrs: men killed fighting against Israel before it abandoned the occupation of the south in 2000 or in the numerous clashes since, including the bloody summer war of 2006.
The images are often the only public acknowledgement of the individuals who make up this most secretive of institutions: Hizbollah's military wing.
But an Observer investigation has discovered that this covert organisation is quietly but steadily replacing its dead and redoubling its recruitment efforts in anticipation of a new, and even more brutal, conflict. Hizbollah has embarked on a major expansion of its fighting capability and is now sending hundreds, if not thousands, of young men into intensive training camps in Lebanon, Syria and Iran to ready itself for war with Israel. 'It's not a matter of if,' says one fighter. 'It's a matter of when Sayed Hasan Nasrallah [Hizbollah chief] commands us.'...
But what is becoming more obvious, even as Hizbollah tries to hide it, is that the group has embarked on an unprecedented build-up of men, equipment and bunker-building in preparation for the war that almost everyone - Lebanese and Israeli - considers inevitable. 'The villages in the south are empty of men,' said one international official. 'They are all gone, training in Bekaa, Syria and Iran.'
When the war comes, four things will be certain. First, that Hezbollah fighters will not wear uniforms. Second, that they will camouflage themselves among non-combatants, and fire from positions using non-combatants as shields. Third, that the world's media, NGOs, and chattering classes, with few exceptions, will blame Israel for any non-combatants who die. Finally, many more people will blame the United States for that war than blame Iran.
Suppose for a moment that these two stories are true. Under any reasonable conception of law or morality, both the United Kingdom and Israel would be justified in going to war with Iran now. That is not to say that it would be wise to do so, but is there any reasonable argument that either country does not have casus belli?
Not that it matters in a world turned upside down.
7 Comments:
By 
, at
Sun Apr 27, 04:00:00 PM:
Israel, too, is provoked by the taking of hostages into embarking on war. Gloria Arroyo pulled the entire Philippine Army contingent out of GW2 because one civilian was taken, and she paid the kidnappers millions to retrieve him as well. The West should develop rhino skin, and treat all captives as Killed in Action, with funerals and full military honors, complete with vows of resolve to prosecute the war we have been in since the fall of the Shah in January of '79. And if those continued operations manage to shake loose some hostages we thought were KIA, that's icing on the cake.
By , at
Sun Apr 27, 04:26:00 PM:
guess george wnats lots of kindling before he sets the match.
By , at
Sun Apr 27, 06:00:00 PM:
President Bush won't be handling this situation, unless Iran moves real fast. That will be left to John McCain or a Democrat. Sobering thought, that. I
By , at
Sun Apr 27, 06:28:00 PM:
If Israel had a younger Sharon still in charge, there would be a surprise invasion right now.
By , at
Mon Apr 28, 07:01:00 AM:
I hate to be pedantic (no I don't), but I think it's quelle surprise. Surprise is feminine in Frence.
By , at
Mon Apr 28, 07:03:00 AM:
Ha!
I mean French!
I deserved that!
By 
Georg Felis, at
Mon Apr 28, 09:59:00 AM:
If the first part is true, the probibility of getting those British hostages back has just gone up, since the Iranian government can see the value of live trading cards (as opposed to their bloody proxys in Iraq). Ex: The British Sailors that were captured a few months ago, exploited, and returned.
If the second part is true, there can be considered a bit of pseudo-good news from the Human Intellegence section, as all these new recruits gives the Western Powers many more prospective spies inside the dark and creepy corners of Hizbollah. Along with GPS coordinates, training manuals, names, etc...
