Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Which "national intelligence assessment" do you believe?
Given their track records, with regard to Iran's nuclear weapons program do you believe the consolidated and official position of the American intelligence community (NIE executive summary (pdf)), or the Israeli?
Following the style, if not the conclusions, of the infamous US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, Israel's intelligence community gave its assessment on Sunday for the coming year. Like the NIE, the Israeli version was couched in probabilities, which allows intelligence agencies to cover nearly every eventuality and claim they had it right no matter what happens. Unlike the NIE, the Israeli version, at least, does not attempt to obscure the obvious: that Iran is desperately seeking nuclear weapons.
Discuss, taking care to mention the probable motives, interests, and competence of the respective national intelligence assets.
4 Comments:
By 
CW, at
Tue Mar 11, 09:06:00 PM:
While the Israelis have been derided as having the most to gain from an American expedition into Iran, Israel's intel has been more accurate than the USA's. In fact, America's human intel in Iran has never recovered from the dismantling during the Carter years. So despite whatever motives are ascribed to Israeli intel, it's better than Amerioca's by default.
CW
By 
, at
Wed Mar 12, 12:44:00 AM:
The IQ test comming from those who grauate from a NEA run schools is very low compaired to all those home educated kids
By David M, at
Wed Mar 12, 11:20:00 AM:
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 03/12/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.
By Georg Felis, at
Wed Mar 12, 12:18:00 PM:
Well, Israel has not had quite the problem with their contacts and projects inside Iran being spread across the front page of the NY Times, so they should have better intel.
I think if Iran continues in its current quest for atomic weaponry, it may just get them, but not in quite the way they expect.
