Saturday, March 22, 2008
German spies are not what they used to be
I suppose we should all be grateful, but German espionage -- like most espionage in this very transparent world -- has definitely seen better days. At least according to those who are trying to rehabilitate Colin Powell's reputation among the chattering classes:
Five years after the US invasion of Iraq, intelligence agency failures in the run-up to the war are once again taking center stage. Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), provided the Bush administration with critical -- and questionable -- information regarding alleged mobile biological weapons laboratories, according to former US government officials.
Indeed, when then-US Secretary of State Colin Powell gave his infamous presentation to the United Nations Security Council in February 2003 during which he made the case that Iraq presented an immediate threat to global security, his comments about Saddam Hussein's alleged biological weapons program were based largely on information provided by the BND.
The information, as it famously turned out, was completely wrong -- and it came from one single source, codenamed "Curveball." An Iraqi engineer who came to Germany seeking asylum in the winter of 1999, "Curveball" was ultimately interviewed by BND agents more than 50 times by the summer of 2001 and provided them with detailed information about the alleged mobile biological weapons laboratories.
According to Lawrence Wilkerson, a close aide to Powell at the time, the BND "did not just send their information about Curveball as a chance operation. It was carefully considered what they sent to us, each and every word was weighed very carefully." He continues: "I can’t exclude the Germans completely here from their share of guilt."
Guilt? German "war guilt" has been almost a cliché for 90 years, but I've never heard it applied to Iraq. Or maybe Wilkerson just means "guilt" for making Colin Powell look like a fool, which is a matter of ultimately small moment. The mobile weapons labs were "evidence" to support a legal point made in a brief that did not carry the day in the forum in which it was "adjudicated," and had little to do with the geopolitical grounds for invasion.
Anyway, this is what comes from working with our "traditional allies"!*
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*Yes, I know, only anti-Bush Democrats would argue that Germany is a "traditional ally," but since they dominate the mainstream media it is a widely-understood convention.
CWCID: Jungle Trader.
6 Comments:
By 
davod, at
Sat Mar 22, 09:09:00 AM:
The warning signs were always there. The Germans refused to let the CIA or DIA interview Curveball. While this is understandable from a German perspective, our spooks should have placed caveats on their analysis. They didn't.
Additionally, the CIA's European head of station, who had most to do with the reporting of the information, is now trashing the administration. These guys are unbelievable. I can only think either the Dems, some Left wing think tank or a foreign unfriendly (Such as the Russians used to do)is funding his book.
By davod, at
Sat Mar 22, 09:14:00 AM:
PS:
I should place my own caveat on what I just wrote. My blog entry is not based upon any direct knowledge of this operation, but on reading a number of books, including Curveball.
Any of these books could have been funded by ratbags wanting to discredit our intelligence agencies.
This reminds me of age old intelligence problem:
How do you know that the information you have is not a plant, or that the information you have discrediting the informations is a plant?
By 
, at
Sat Mar 22, 10:41:00 AM:
So what was the final verdict on those mobile weapons labs? Saddam's regime said they were for producing hydrogen for artillery balloons. Yet, why use hydrogen instead of helium? And why not use gas tankers filled with helium?
By Georg Felis, at
Sat Mar 22, 01:54:00 PM:
The final verdict on the “Mobile Weapons Labs” as far as I know is that they were really H2 generators for artillery balloons, but constructed in a strange and semi-crude way. They used bacteriological fermentors for the chemical mixing vat that makes the H2, either intentionally to confuse the issue, or because it was the easiest thing they had at hand to weld together. Being a former farmer and amateur welder, I can understand how that can happen.
Therefore Curveball either knew they were H2 generators and lied, or was told they were disguised bio war plants, or found out about the fermentors and thought they were disguised bio war equipment, or there was some sort of official misrepresentation inside Saddam’s government.
It was an easy enough identification mistake for us to make, coming from a regime that buried dozens of jet aircraft to hide them, poured new concrete over nuclear lab floors before UN inspectors showed up in order to hide radiation, hid and concealed all kinds of other things. Particularly when intel identified them, we photographed them, captured them, examined them, and found the fermentors inside them. (1993 link) https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraqi_mobile_plants/index.html
Incidentally H2 was used by the Iraqis for these balloons because it is cheaper, easier to store (caustic agent and a reactant) over time, and available. We use Helium because it does not blow up.
By , at
Sat Mar 22, 02:40:00 PM:
I always found it interesting that a German government dead set, even rabidly, against the war in the first place was trusted with supplying information supporting its launch.
I think Americans consistently underestimate the duplicity of Europeans.
By , at
Tue Mar 25, 06:14:00 AM:
"I always found it interesting that a German government dead set, even rabidly, against the war in the first place was trusted with supplying information supporting its launch."
Of course they were against it: They couldn't verify Curveball's claims and considered him to be an unreliable source. But Powell went to the UN and claimed to have reliable evidence for Iraq's WMD, and then showed only drawings of Curveball's claims. How could that ever convince the Germans, that a war was justified, when they already doubted Curveball's reliability?
It's also cute, that you assume, that intelligence agencies just believe any information, that they happen to receive. Verification of sources and their analysis is the A and O of intelligence work. It will only be neglected, if there is a political pressure to come to given conclusion. And many American intelligence officials have claimed to be pressured before the Iraq war.
