Monday, November 26, 2007
Stratfor on Annapolis
Buy your mother Stratfor for Christmas!
Perhaps with that promo Stratfor will forgive me for liberally excerpting their letter on the Annapolis conference.
But while expectations for this particular meeting are low, we ought to be cautious about dismissing it.
Peace in the Middle East is unlikely to unfold at Annapolis, but it is significant that Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad will be there to see it not unfold. They announced their plans to attend following an Arab League vote endorsing the conference (which of course would not have passed without the blessing of the Saudis). So, while the Saudis and Syrians both grumbled about attending, neither resisted the Arab League decision enough to block it.
This is worth noting. The Saudis do not go to such conferences; they tend to give advice from the sidelines. It is therefore important that they have decided to sit down with the Israelis and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas rather than boycott in solidarity with Hamas, a group they support. Whatever the outcome of the meeting, the Saudis' decision to attend is a slap in the face of Islamist Palestinians. It was not a decision taken lightly.
Two possible motives for the move come to mind. The first is to back up the United States. Saudi Arabia has become increasingly concerned that American weakness, resulting from the Iraq war, might create a power vacuum in the region. At the end of the day, the Saudis do not want to see that vacuum arise, and they want Annapolis to look successful, give the Bush administration a boost and make the United States appear to be doing better in the region.
The second motive has to do with Iran. The more unstable the Sunni world becomes, the more powerful Shiite Iran becomes, and the Saudis have the most to lose with the rise of Iranian power. The Palestinian split is a Sunni split and it opens the door to Shiite Hezbollah and the Iranians -- not something the Saudis want to see continue. Going to Annapolis is a strong signal from Riyadh that it wants the Palestinians to reconcile.
In this context, the decision by the Syrians to attend is important. The Saudis undoubtedly leaned on them heavily. The Syrians have been close to the Iranians, in a complex and not always easy relationship. The Alawite government in Syria is Shiite, but governs a predominantly Sunni country. By attending Annapolis, the Syrians have signaled that they are not to be ruled out of whatever peace process emerges, while staking a claim to their own, non-Palestinian issue, the Golan Heights. But by coming to Annapolis, the Syrians have also opened a door to the United States and the Saudis.
Or maybe the Syrians just do not want to be bombed again. Or maybe they are there to look out for Iran's interests. Or maybe they got something good in return. In all cases, Annapolis will probably be interesting and symbolic. The question is how.
Talk amongst yourselves. I'm on a plane this morning, but will return later in the day.
5 Comments:
By 
Yishai, at
Mon Nov 26, 10:42:00 AM:
I am praying that this ridiculous "parlay" ends with no damage to Israel. The best outcome of this farcical farce is for the "Islamist Palestinians" (has a nice ring, Stratfor) to be shown for what they really are - a powerless bunch of thugs with no real interest in peace. Arafat ended the previous "talks" that way, I hope Abbas will as well. At least Hamas has the balls to say what they believe in: that they must must destroy all of Israel.
By 
, at
Mon Nov 26, 12:48:00 PM:
"Buy your mother Stratfor for Christmas!"
In all honesty, Hawk, I think she'd prefer a new pair of oven mitts. :)
"Talk amongst yourselves."
Cool! An open blog! This thread is ours, OURS!
Speaking of Syria, there's a very interesting article on the reactor Israel bombed a while back here.
In case you missed Mark Steyn's interesting column last Friday, it's here.
Hey, this "blogging" stuff is fun! I feel just like Glenn Reynolds!
Read the whole thing.
OUCH.
Read the whole thing.
Why, ANYBODY can do this stuff!
Mike Huckabee has been picking up a head of steam lately, and I admit the guy is kind of likeable, but read this before you get your hopes up.
Okay, enough of the silly, frivolous articles -- let's get to the hard-biting, in-depth reporting! Follow with me as I reveal the sordid underpinnings of the current successful disappointing holiday shopping season!
But wait! I know what you're thinking.
You're thinking, "Doc! All this 'articles' stuff is nice and all, but where's the raw, unadulterated sex? You know -- the GOOD stuff!"
Well, if you insist, but this won't be pretty.
WARNING: NOT SAFE FOR WORK OR POSSIBLY EVEN HOME!
Ten-year-old girls, reeking of sex!
You've been warned.
I honestly hope I didn't shock too many people with that daring, revealing photograph. Please don't blame me.
I'm only the messenger.
Okay, let's shake off that sordid event and do some more of that cool "blogging" stuff!
Read the whole thing.
OUCH.
Damn, this blogging stuff is fun! And Tiger gets to do it every day! Jeez, what a good time, knowing that every word you write is going to be put under a 3000X electron microscope and disassembled down to its last micron.
What a lucky guy!
Well, it certainly has been fun doing some of that cool "blogging" stuff today, and thanks to the big guy for the (kind of) open thread. I'd honestly like to talk more, but I've got to polish up the lens of my 3000X electron microscope for Tiger's next article!
By , at
Mon Nov 26, 01:31:00 PM:
Check out Andrew McCarthy's smack down of the Annapolis er...summit.
The thug Assad regime of Syria will apparently take a couple of days off from murdering Lebanese democrats and enabling the anti-American jihad in Iraq to attend this week’s Annapolis summit … or "conference," or "meeting." It’s difficult to say how we should describe Condoleezza Rice’s pie-in-the-sky confab.
I’m going with "farce."
Simply stated, the farce is crushing for Bush supporters. This administration is hellbent on granting statehood to savages who worship "martyrdom," who have bombed their way to the table, and whose non-negotiable demand — a "right of return" to Israel for millions of migrant Palestinians — would sound the death-knell for a civilized democracy that is our only true friend in the region. So desperate is the administration to show "progress" and "engagement" that it is placing its chips on an unreconstructed terrorist organization, Fatah, that fails the most basic tests of sovereignty — able neither to control its own territory nor to acknowledge the right of a neighboring sovereign to exist. And in executing the strategy, the administration is betraying the principle that state sponsors of terror like Syria must be eradicated or reformed, but never embraced — the only roadmap to real peace.
I wonder what we’d be saying if president behind this farce were named Clinton.
OUCH.
By , at
Mon Nov 26, 01:49:00 PM:
Jaw -Jaw is better than war-war, at least I think Churchill (Winston, not Ward) said that.
Outcomes:
1) Nothing substantive happens, but it is a propaganda victory for the Arab-Islamist cause. Heads will roll, literally.
2) Nothing substantive happens, but it is a propaganda victory for The Great Satan and Little Satan (the US an Israel), as the whole Arab-islamist cause is once again revealed in public, as they behave like the barbarians they are. Sets the premise for more military action by the US in a few years. Maybe.
3) Something substantive is agreed to, but the Palestinians manage to botch it up down the road, for the umpteenth time. Small PR victory for the Bush administration now, larger embarrassment for the Pally's in a few years.
4) Everybody ends up ganging up on the Israelis to give up something more for nothing substantive in return. Bad karma for civilization, and the premise for the 'next' intifada.
5) Maybe we drive a little wedge between the Syrians and the Iranians (with the help of Saudi petrodollar bribes?). Small victory for us. Yay!
With the Saudi's attending, per Tigerhawks comment above, I think (5) is the most hopeful outcome for us.
I think (1) is pretty unlikely, with the event happening in the US and not in Europe. The European newsmedia would do about anything to put Israel in a bad light.
(2) is also pretty unlikely for the about the same reason, as our own media would like nothing more than to embarrass GWB and Sec. Rice ONE.... MORE... TIME.
(3) is a definite maybe. There is history for this. Really.
(4) is the really scary scenario, but this actually hurts the Saudi cause because it helps the Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran axis, which is why Syria is probably there; to pour sand in the gears whenever possible and embarrass the Saudis, if possible.
Back to you, sportsfans.
-David
By davod, at
Mon Nov 26, 05:13:00 PM:
40 countries plus the USA. Pretty bad odds for Isreal 40 to one.
