Tuesday, August 07, 2007
More on polarization in Iraq
Richard Fernandez dissects the most recent Brookings report on Iraq. He notices something interesting:
Of the 18 provinces in Iraq, 96.4 of all insurgent attacks take place in 8 of them, as shown in the table below (for purposes of administration, Baghdad is considered a province). Comparing the map of insurgent attacks with an ethnic map of Iraq makes it clear why the fighting is sometimes termed the "Sunni insurgency"....
But what's going on here? Much of the recent Surge, which the Brookings Report cites as being apparently successful, has taken place precisely in partnership with Sunni communities and/or former Sunni insurgents. How do we reconcile the apparent contradiction between the Sunni opposition to the American presence and their recent cooperation with Coalition forces in driving out al-Qaeda? The answer to this conundrum lies in the principle that the "enemy of my enemy is my friend"; when the same Sunnis are asked to rank their opposition to the US in relationship to the al-Qaeda and the Shi'ites, the Americans are apparently to be preferred.
In counterinsurgency, it is far more important to win minds than hearts.
2 Comments:
By 
D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Aug 07, 02:54:00 AM:
"In counterinsurgency, it is far more important to win minds than hearts."
And, of course, there is always the third option. Genghis Khan in Afghanistan:
"The white hill city, encrusted with the ruins of centuries past, was destroyed in the 13th century when Genghis Khan conquered Bamiyan. According to legend, he was so furious that his son was killed in the siege that he killed even the mice of the city, leading to the name Shar-e Gholghola, which means the City of Screams." -- Mark Sappenfield, The Christian Science Monitor
Link:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0807/p01s05-wosc.html
By Purple Avenger, at
Tue Aug 07, 04:20:00 AM:
The locals are voting with their feet. AQ is losing the election.
