Thursday, July 12, 2007
Stratfor: If Iran is smart, it will cut a deal now
I am generally occupied today and well into the evening, but I thought this observation from Stratfor (free stuff and subscription info here) might make for some interesting argument in my absence:
The seemingly never-ending nature of the war and the White House's my-way-or-the-highway policies appear to have broken the normally unbreakable portion of the Republican coalition -- national security conservatives. Of the 49 Republican senators, by Stratfor's count, five long ago left the president's camp on the issue of Iraq, and nine more have left within the last month -- seven of them this week alone. These are not dilettantes. Sens. Snowe, Hagel, John Sununu and Richard Lugar are part and parcel of the current generation's core U.S. defense thinkers. No president can simply ignore it when people like these run up the red flag.
While there obviously is a difference between disenchantment with Iraq policy and an all-out rebellion against presidential authority, Democrats and disaffected Republicans now hold 64 votes in the Senate -- tantalizingly close to the 67-seat, veto-proof, across-the-aisle coalition needed to bypass the president. (This 64-seat majority does not include erstwhile Democrat Sen. Joseph Lieberman.)
The momentum is certainly against Bush, and -- barring a very impressive rabbit-from-the-hat trick -- domestic opinion about Iraq will be impossible to turn around. In the meantime, the Iraqi government is clearly not on the verge of acting like a functional ruling body. And those opposed to a U.S.-Iranian deal -- especially foreign jihadists and other groups inside Iraq -- are sparing no effort to turn the region into a bloodbath.
The bitter irony, as far as Bush is concerned, is that the ultimate rabbit -- a comprehensive deal with Iran over the future of Iraq that ends the war in as conclusive a manner as possible -- could actually end the Bush presidency as well and push that 64 up to 67. Any initial U.S.-Iranian deal will require reining in rogue elements. Hence, even if things from this point on go swimmingly, the violence is certain to get worse before it gets better.
Iran and the United States have been going back and forth for years over a potential Iraq settlement. At every turn, each has tested the other's nerve and attempted to appear tougher than it actually is. The Iranians know that if they do not seal a deal soon, they might have to start from scratch, not only with a new U.S. administration but also with an administration intent on using national security issues to prove itself worthy of the public's trust. If Iran cannot get a deal soon, it might not get one at all -- and that sets the stage for possible Iranian concessions due to American weaknesses.
Release the hounds.
7 Comments:
By 
, at
Thu Jul 12, 10:06:00 AM:
If this is right, the Dem controlled Gov't might again abandon a war and have it deemed a failure, just like Vietnam.
The news about AQ massing and reforming in Pakistan might rekindle taking the war seriously, as a result of new "activity". If that happens, I hope it's in one of our "allies", like Russia, Germany, France, etc. We could use some help in convincing others tht this isn't just Bush's fantasy.
Oh, and (metaphorically speaking) maybe another strike on our most liberal campus in the US, just to wake up the leftists.
By 
Georg Felis, at
Thu Jul 12, 10:12:00 AM:
Having a bit of difficulty with the translation of the last paragraph from Stratfor to English. Could it be translated “If the Iranians mullahs don’t cut a deal with Bush soon, they face the possibility of President Hillary bombing the snot out of them to prove how serious she is on National Defense.”
If the Jihadists have any sense whatsoever, they will avoid any strikes inside the US. Within a few months, the Left is set to hand them a grand victory and put the sleeping giant back to bed (while the rest of the world burns).
By , at
Thu Jul 12, 12:11:00 PM:
"Sens. Snowe, Hagel, John Sununu and Richard Lugar are part and parcel of the current generation's core U.S. defense thinkers."
You include Hagel as a defense thinker? I think not. Hagel remains firmly stuck in 1967. IMO Hagel is really a sock puppet for his brother.
By Dawnfire82, at
Thu Jul 12, 06:45:00 PM:
This assumes a level of insight and understanding of our government and its processes that I don't think the Iranians have.
By Purple Avenger, at
Thu Jul 12, 06:47:00 PM:
Sens. Snowe, Hagel, John Sununu and Richard Lugar are...
...morons who watch too much TV news.
By , at
Thu Jul 12, 06:54:00 PM:
"Sens. Snowe, Hagel, John Sununu and Richard Lugar are part and parcel of the current generation's core U.S. defense thinkers"
Let me see. They all just voted to limit the President's ability to use the DOD.
Very corish.
Is the core the same as the middle ground. Someone once said the the middle ground represents the crap of the cream and the cream of the crap.
Can someone tell me what the core values of this core of defense thinkers are.
By Ray, at
Fri Jul 13, 09:47:00 AM:
Why cut a deal, when they can win the whole thing? The entire point of the Democratic maneuvers in Congress, is to lose the war before the next president takes office.
