Tuesday, October 10, 2006
A Sense of Humor
Forgive me the tacky rhetorical flourish, but when I was a child, we would refer to the oddball in the class as a "retard." With a long e. I can hardly find a more apt description for North Korea today, unpleasant and politically incorrect as that term has become. Surrounded by the brilliance, the capacity and the success of South Korea, Japan and China, all of which arose from the ashes in the last 50 or fewer years to improve the lives of 1.5 billion people, North Korea stands as history's finest current example of the abject failure of totalitarian communism (exceeding, in my estimation, Cuba). It makes George Orwell's writings positively quaint and tame.
Some might decry the US's unwillingness to speak to North Korea directly or "bilaterally." That is simply ignorant. We did that. And it failed. Just ask President Clinton and Secretary Albright. They made a deal, with an assist to Jimmy Carter. And today the Norks have nukes. Some deal. It's called bribery, and as any con artist will attest, it is never sustainable. Uck. If there was ever evidence required that we cannot entrust this sort of thing to today's Democratic leadership, well, here you go.
The reason to ignore this creature in the elevator who insists on farting and stinking it up for everybody is that to give them the benefit of opposing force is to help them stand up. Remove the opposing force, and they will fall over. It is imminent. That is why they are blustering and testing and shooting and so forth. They need a response. They must be ignored. A lesson here might serve us well with Iran.
If somebody must deal with them, let it be the locals most offended by the stink of their flatulence. That's why Japan and China are summiting on the matter. People seem committed to carping about American diplomatic arrogance and the Bush Administration. That is simply more ignorant partisan rubbish. The appropriate and respectful American diplomatic response is for the US to allow China and Japan to punish or extinguish their dysfunctional little brother. Immediately. I assure you, that if Venezuela threatens the planet with Chavezian nuclear capabililty, the Monroe Doctrine will obtain. So let's allow the local cops to deal with this rogue, shall we?
Update at 6pm: Senator John McCain speaks with Captain Ed at Captain's Quarters regarding North Korea. Tough talk.
11 Comments:
By 
Charlottesvillain, at
Tue Oct 10, 04:32:00 PM:
You hear everyone blustering about a "serious" response to this alleged test. What alternatives credibly exist? Ignoring NK might really be the best option. I guess more of an embargo is also a possibility, but what more can you really do to a country that is essentially in a famine? I think you are probably right that a collapse is imminent. Then again, there are potential new horrors associated with that outcome as well.
By 
, at
Tue Oct 10, 05:05:00 PM:
This post seems rather hastily written, and isn't very coherent. You advocate ignoring North Korea from the US's perspective and allowing China, Japan, and SK to deal with the problem. But neither Japan nor SK are independent nuclear powers; they fall under the US's umbrella. So how can they possibly credibly deal with a nuclear North Korea from a position of strength without the US's involvement?
Also, you provide no evidence to support your statement that North Korea is any closer to collapse now than it was at any point in the past. Its people are just as repressed and miserable as they have been for a long time. Their version of the news is so state censored that it doesn't matter whether we ignore or engage them; their people and indeed everyone except the very top leadership will hear exactly what the Party wants them to hear.
Also, the gratuitous Clinton-bashing is getting out of hand. Clinton engaged the Norks on the nuclear issue from a position of strength and got them to sign the "Agreed Framework." This caused the Nork's nuclear ambitions to be *at least delayed* by forcing the North to accept such measures as spent fuel rods at Yongbyon being encased in concrete under IAEA supervision in 1997. That is a whole hell of a lot more than Bush has done about North Korea during his entire tenure in office. And let's not forget the irony of going to war in Iraq, on the premise of finding WMD's, while North Korea was RIGHT THERE...
And CV: an embargo on luxury goods, which is one of the measures being discussed at the UN, may be able yet to hit KJI where it really hurts - denying him and his top cadre the "decadent foreign luxuries" they so desparately need.
By Cardinalpark, at
Tue Oct 10, 05:49:00 PM:
Incoherent? Oh please.
Fine I won't "bash Clinton." I will say that a Republican - say Bush I -- could just as easily have paid a similar bribe to the Norks. It so happens that it happened on Clinton's watch, and it failed. If you can't see that, then it is you who are incoherent.
Japan would devastate North Korea, with or without nuclear capability. Within 12 months, Japan would have more nuclear capability than North Korea, Iran and Pakistan could dream of.
They don't require our umbrella. they require our friendship and support. But if you think Japan doesn't have the the capability to roll NK, and that China doesn't have a similar interest to control NK, then, again, you are not paying attention.
An embargo of luxury goods? Are you serious?
By , at
Tue Oct 10, 06:08:00 PM:
I want to point out that the same people calling for bilateral talks with NK were decrying our "unilateralism" while dealing with Iraq. While we were're really dealing unilaterally with Iraq and we wouldn't be dealing with NK unilaterally either (in the wings we'd be talking with the Chinese and the SK at least), doing anything close to that is a bad idea.
There are many interested local parties who have a much bigger interest in a stable, healthy NK than we do. (remember, they can only hit our allies, and the loss of them wouldn't hurt us too much in strictly realist terms, though I wouldn't want to debate that point very much) We should let them deal with NK. We should, of course, support them and offer advice, but it should be their responsibility. We don't have the money (or the available force) to put civilization back into NK, nor do we have the public will, most likely.
And the (most likely failed) test is only a cry for attention. Why should we give them exactly what they want?
Let the locals deal with it.
By , at
Tue Oct 10, 06:32:00 PM:
I'm disappointed by your unserious reply, CP.
"I will say that a Republican - say Bush I -- could just as easily have paid a similar bribe to the Norks. It so happens that it happened on Clinton's watch, and it failed."
Where is your evidence that it failed? I provided you with a concrete objective that Clinton achieved with his diplomatic initiatives - he definitely delayed North Korea's nuclear ambitions in *several documented ways*. In contrast, GWB's lack of engagement with North Korea has not stopped KJI from obtaining a possibly-functioning nuclear device *on GWB's watch.* How can you possibly infer that any of this is Clinton's fault?!
"Japan would devastate North Korea, with or without nuclear capability. Within 12 months, Japan would have more nuclear capability than North Korea, Iran and Pakistan could dream of."
Prove it. According to the FAS, North Korea currently has around 1,000,000 regular troops under arms, with over 4 million more in reserve, which includes an Air Force as well as mechanized brigades. No one has ANY IDEA how loyal/brainwashed these troops are, or how hardened NK's command and control infrastructure is. Combine that with NK's arsenal of medium range missiles capable of hitting Seoul/Tokyo, together with their extensive stockpiles of chemical wepaons, and rather than "rolling" it is more likely that any invasion by SK/Japan would result in military and civilian carnage on a scale not seen since WWII.
"They don't require our umbrella. they require our friendship and support."
Apparently, the japanese premier disagrees with you, as he just publically affirmed his determination not to proceed with any kind of nuclear armament (as has been the law in japan for the last 35 years).
Calling me names won't change the fact that the substance of your post consists of rank speculation backed up only by the use of boldface. Judging from the last paragraph it doesn't even look like it was proofread.
By skipsailing, at
Tue Oct 10, 07:01:00 PM:
It takes a special kind of guy to insult the host on a web site comment board.
Back to the decency debate I reckon. Phrizz you may disagree with your gracious host but common decency would indicate that personal attacks are over the line.
No, I'm not talking about legislation!
As for the substance of CP's post, I concur. The regime in NK has basically pissed away its credibility. A failed missle launch and now a suspicious nuke test.
In the words of spike lee: You got nothing.
Here is evidence that clinton failed: A rogue regime has the ability to convince the world that is has nukes. This ability it a direct result of the agreed framework. Carter is on record as stating that the NK's would never test a nuclear weapon.
that Phrizz is failure. Delay my bodunkas buddy, delay means: Apres moi le deluge. True that!
I can easily blame Clinton: the deal was done on his watch and the lead time to develop clearly indicates that the NK's have been at it for quite a while.
As CP quite clearly points out, this is yet another lefty chain yank, and a mighty crude one at that.
First you want multi, then you want uni, it matters not what bush does, you hate him and will criticize everything he does.
futher Phrizz you are ignoring a very important party to this little charade: the North Koreans themselves. At what point will the left recognize that simply talking to murderous rogues will accomplish nothing?
How long did Solana talk to Larijani before he had to admit that he made no progress? And all that time, what were the Iranians doing? Knitting burkahs?
You may wish to believe that "engagement" is the solution to all problems, but it ain't and never has been. Engagement is your excuse for inaction, the very inaction that, thanks to the clinton, carter, albright axis of weasels, got us into this spot.
We are running around the globe cleaning up messes that festered due to our inattention or use of failed policies. the left has a hair trigger when it comes to their boy Bubbah. They can dish out dishonesty about Bush all day long, but discuss a Clinton failure? Stand by for the rudeness and indecency!
By skipsailing, at
Tue Oct 10, 07:16:00 PM:
Further discussion of the NK situation
here's an address to an article by Arthur Waldron concerning Japan's military situation.
http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.67/pub_detail.asp
Dr Waldron, in response to a question about the time it would take for japan to develop Nuclear weapons responded: 24 hours.
As to the lions and tigers and bears (oh my) list of NK"s military assets, this is hardly a reason to do nothing. As noted above doing nothing is a prescription for failure. Phrizz is right, we don't know exactly how well the North Korean Army will fight. Should we then ascribe invincibility to them and simply ignore the threat they pose?
this pattern is repeated frequently on comment boards. An anti victory poster will extoll the virtues of an American enemy and then demand that we simply quail in fear at the thought of fighting them.
I don't think so.
Right now we are being asked to befriend a country led by a madman who has bragged about placing non functional nuclear devices in non existent war heads so they can be launched via non functioning missles.
why? Why should we spend another minute of our time elevating this jerk to the status of "worthy opponent"?
By K. Pablo, at
Wed Oct 11, 05:58:00 AM:
phrizz, it is virtually axiomatic that "an army marches on its belly" and that modern warfare is no less dependent on logistical support for its combat units. Given the abject poverty of NK, what evidence can you offer that one million troops and mechanized brigades and Air Force could sustain operations for longer, say, than one week?
NK, while a semi-functioning state in the Cold War, had value as a pawn on one of the back rows of China's chessboard as long as it was backed up by the rest of the Chicoms. Those days are long since passed and NK has become a real liability to the Chinese. I don't know how you expect to maintain any credibility by posting as if this were not true. They are now a regional basket case, singularly pathetic with or without nuke-brandishing madmen at the helm.
The challenge remains one of containment until the regime collapses, and yes, there will be an enormous humanitarian catastrophe when this inevitably happens, which will make the Iraqi reconstruction seem like ice cream & lollipops, and the East German reconstruction seem like mmmm I don't know, brats & lager & buxom blondes.
By , at
Wed Oct 11, 11:32:00 AM:
KP: You claim that NK does not have the capacity to support its army, however this implicitly assumes a situation as in the former Soviet Union, where military expenditures ultimately sank the economy and finally the government. There is no evidence that the current NK leadership does not have both the will and the means to allow its entire population to starve to death in order to provide logistical support for its army. Regardless of that fact, NK needs hardly any logistical support to launch its missiles and artillery shells to blanket the cities of Japan and South Korea with VX and other chemical agents, causing enormous harm. That alone makes an invasion with NK's current leadership in place unthinkable - talk of anyone "rolling" NK at this time is nonsense for that reason alone.
It is indeed true that NK is entirely dependant on China for its existence. China feeds NK's population and provides the support NK needs for its military. The Chinese government is not known for its mercy to those it feels are "liabilities," and while NK has recently embarrassed them on an international stage, if they truly felt that NK was doing more harm than good to their interests I don't believe that they would have any compunctions about starving the entire lot of them.
Also, you and the posters above have avoided the issue of proliferation. One of the great dangers is not that KJI will use a (semi-functional) nuke or chemical weapons, but that he will give it to someone who will. That is not a danger we can afford to ignore, and even though there is no evidence that NK has weaponizable nuclear technology, a terrorist group could do plenty with a shipping container full of VX rigged to explode when it got into port.
I agree with your other points.
By , at
Wed Oct 11, 04:57:00 PM:
Every time someone brings up the 1 million men of the NK army, I think of this bit by comedian Bill Hicks on Gulf War I:
Remember how it started, they kept talking about the 'Elite Republican Guard' in these hushed tones, like these guys are the boogey man or something?
Yeah, we're doing well now but we have yet to face the Elite Republican Guard . . . Like these guys were twelve feet tall desert warriors.
Never lost a battle! We shit bullets!
Yeah, well, after two months of continuous carpet bombing and not one reaction at all from them, they became simply "the Republican Guard". Not nearly as elite as we may have led you to believe. And after another month of bombing they went from the Elite Republican Guard to the Republican Guard to the Republicans made this shit up about there being guards out there.
By K. Pablo, at
Wed Oct 11, 06:34:00 PM:
According to Senator George McGovern (presumably a man who wouldn't lie to us, right?), current U.S. expenditures in Iraq average $246 million per day for roughly 120,000 U.S. troops. Not sure what time window this represents, but the article implies that it is fiscal 2006, during which the tempo of combat operations wasn't particularly intense like you would find if, say, you poured 1 million troops across a DMZ.
At that rate of expenditure, North Korea would blow through its 2003 GDP (according to the FAS source you kindly provided) in about 10 days. And then what ... a loan?
Clearly, firing off a bunch of ordnance would wreak enormous destruction, but if it achieves no aims and is suicidal I'm not sure even KJI would do it. Certainly he realizes it would interrupt the Ukrainian White Slavery business in his corner of Asia, to say nothing of its impact on his career as a cinematographer. He displays no desire for conquest; he seems only to nakedly crave worship that never comes from outside his miserable stinking gulag-state.
Although you may fairly claim I didn't address the "proliferation issue" I surely didn't distort it as grossly as you did. VX gas is not nearly as difficult to manufacture as a nuclear weapon, and proliferation of VX gas is not the issue, is it?
Lastly, the Chinese won't "starve the lot" of the hapless NK proles because they are unwilling to face the enormous refugee influx of destitute humanity that would inevitably result. Bad for business... and China is ALL ABOUT business of late. Genocide, BTW, also might limit China's access to markets.
