Tuesday, August 15, 2006
Lebanon - The Middle Path?
On the other hand, it is not an insignificant fact that the Lebanese Army is moving into southern Lebanon to take control of the positions which the IDF secured. Lebanon is now assuming responsibility for Hezbollah's actions - heretofore, it had not, nor had it been forced to. So whereas Israel was criticized for engaging Lebanon as a whole rather than merely Hezbollah (as if it could so easily distinguish between the two), in the future, Lebanon as a whole will be held responsible for the actions of Hezbollah. IF Hezbollah fires at Israel in the presence of the Lebanese army, than it is Lebanon as a nation that will be accountable to Israel and the international community.
In the optimistic and admittedly naive case, Lebanon's Army will control the south and Israel's northern border will be secure. If Israel's northern border is not secure, then Israel will take the position that Lebanon is making war on Israel and she has the legitimate right to make war in any part of Lebanon, including decimating Beirut or the Bekaa Valley. This legitimacy cannot be underestimated.
Both Lebanon with Hezbollah and the PA, run by Hamas, now understand that the consequences and costs of attacks on Israel will in the future be acknowledged as national acts of war - not simple criminal acts. Nation states act with greater care and responsibility when it comes to acts of aggression -- North Korea does not incite a war with border crossings against South Korea. Syria and Iran do not dare attack Israel or the US directly and leave fingerprints. Instead, they use these sub-national, criminal gangs to provoke and irritate. Hamas has dramatically ramped down its attacks on Israel and its citizens since the Gaza withdrawal. When they kidnapped one soldier, enormously more firepower was brought to bear against Gaza than had previously been the case. And international condemnation of Israel for actions in Gaza has declined markedly. Since withdrawal, the international community has expected the PA/Hamas to behave more akin to a sovereign nation than aggrieved victims. I think the same analogy holds for Lebanon/Hezbollah.
Now I still suspect that Olmert's government will struggle to stay in power, and he will be challenged aggressively by Benjamin Netanyahu from the right. But if the northern border holds and is secure, then it may be that Olmert walked the right balance between too much force and too little. We just won't know for some time. And in any event, it was probably worth the risk of trying. After all, Israel can always elect to pound Lebanon into submission.
Now, we must see if we can flip Syria next...
2 Comments:
By 
, at
Thu Aug 17, 12:53:00 AM:
G_d has forsaken the Israeli people. In every other war Israel has been in since 1948 G_d has blessed the Israeli people with miracles to help Israel win, but not this war.
Why?
I believe it’s because of the tolerance that has been seen in Israel for homosexuality, BSDM, and other immoral behavior.
Chronicles 24:20
New International Version (NIV)
20 Then the Spirit of G_d came upon Zechariah son of Jehoiada the priest. He stood before the people and said, “This is what G_d says: ‘Why do you disobey the LORD’s commands? You will not prosper. Because you have forsaken the LORD, he has forsaken you.’
By 
Dawnfire82, at
Thu Aug 17, 08:23:00 PM:
If you want to categorize a massive loan of Czech-made arms to the proto-Israelis by the USSR in '48 on the understanding that they would become a Socialist State as a miracle, you go right ahead.
