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Thursday, August 31, 2006

Elephant bulls 


I dropped by the Iowa Electronic Markets for the first time in more than a month, and was surprised to see that the Republican House "hold" contract (the green line below) has risen significantly in price in the last three weeks.

(Click to enlarge)


What accounts for the improvement? Fidelity to history requires me to notice that the price of the Republican "hold" contract began to rise on August 10, the day the world learned of the foiled al Qaeda plot to blow up transatlantic flights, but it did not began the steep part of the rally until August 17, the day Judge Anna Diggs Taylor ruled that federal courts could veto wiretaps of terrorists who troubled themselves to conference in a "U.S. person." Mere correlation, or cause and effect? You decide.


2 Comments:

By Anonymous Purple Avenger, at Thu Aug 31, 10:54:00 PM:

I don't think the public is as stupid as the dems believe it to be.

Public opinion is in effect the "delphi method" of coming to a conclusion (just using something less than "experts" for the panel).

People may not be experts on law particulars, but they know bullshit when they hear it and will adjust accordingly if they think this is what the dems will give them more of.

The dems would have done well to muzzle this judge until after the election.  

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