Friday, July 28, 2006
Intelligence reports indicate the leader of Hezbollah is hiding in a foreign mission in Beirut, possibly the Iranian Embassy, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.
If this is true, it is hilarious. If it is false, it is probably misinformation put out on purpose to make Hassan Nasrallah look like a coward. Which is even more hilarious. Either way, the story needs more play.
Maybe this newstory and the story about how the political wing of Hezbollah is asking for a cease fire represent turning points.
Perhaps you can answer a question that I posed to Jonah Goldberg on National Review's Corner.
Prior to 1989 many conservaties subscribed to the Jean-Francios Revel's view that democracies are fragile while dictatorships are strong (in his mid 1980s book "Why Democracies Perish").
But in since the 1989-1992 implosion of the Soviet Empire conservatives generally became more optimistic, perhaps subscribing to the views put forth in Natan Sharansky's "The Case for Democracy" and Francis Fukuyama's "The End of History and the Last Man."
This latter view is that dictatorships suffer from a lack of legitimacy while democracies constantly renew that legitimacy by having freely held elections. The result is that, if democracies play their cards right, dictatorships will fall while democracies grow in number.
Why then does Iran (a dictatorship) seem so strong and "in control" while Iraq (a democracy seems on the brink of imploding? Perhaps the premise is wrong and I am just a victim of slanted coverage of Iraq by the mainstream media. But what say you?
Why then does Iran (a dictatorship) seem so strong and "in control" while Iraq (a democracy seems on the brink of imploding?
Anyone playing the big bluff better look like they're in control or the game is over.
How many years was it before the US constitution was ratified?
How many years did it take before the GDR got its constitution?
The media exagerates because of their BDS.
Iran seems strong and in control because it is a police state that controls what its people can do and what foreigners can see, for the most part. But if you dig hard or know someone who can read Farsi (here's a good start: http://regimechangeiran.blogspot.com/) you can find that Iran is currently plagued by uprisings, strikes, insurgent attacks, and other signs of rebellion weekly.
NOT indicative of a strong nation, nor that far removed from Iraq. Except Iran is not swarming with media eager for bad news...
Thanks for you responses. I agree that it's hard to know exactly how much rot exists within a near-totalitarian dictatorship because of the media control. Who knows? In 2011 we could be blogging and commenting about the collapse of the Iranian Mullacracy.
Iraq is an artificial state, Iran is not. There is no one factor that explains the durability of states.
The Emirates Economist: Post War Economics :: Aplia Econ Blog