Sunday, May 28, 2006
Gateway Pundit has a huge roundup of the protests in Iran (CWCID: Instapundit). There's a lot going on there.
We've also seen this before. The protests in the summer of 1999 were massive, and many in both Iran and the West thought -- or at least hoped -- that then-President Mohammed Khatami would declare in support of the reformist movement. From Kenneth Pollack, The Persian Puzzle, at 335:
Revolutions are peculiar things, and it is a rare moment when enough people become willing to fight the institutions of state repression that one becomes possible. The summer of 1999 held that potential in Iran, a potential that had been building since the 1997 election. When Khatami failed to lead the revolution that seemed ready to be unleashed, he doomed the reform movement to defeat.
If he had, Iran might be a different place today. But Khatami was not a great revolutionary leader, and the reformist moment passed.
This time, the streets are filling with demonstrators with no apparent hope of relief from the leading figures in the government. Is this just spring fever on the campuses, or is there something more at work? Do not fail to read this fascinating analysis of the shifting power within the Iranian regime, and wonder what role these demonstrations may play in that drama.
What is amazing to me is that everybody seems to know what they are doing or what it appears they are doing in Iran.
No one knows any more about it than the next expert.
The Supreme Leader is just that. He dictates, other listen and obey.
Nothing is happpening without his approval. Most all of it is happening at his direction.
Internal politics aside, he knows how the Media, the experts and our state dept work. He has plenty of experience and plenty of adivsors.
Decieving us is easy, we help at almost every step of the way. We just can't help ourselves, because we of course, know politics and know about governments like Iran's.
To which I say, we don't know anything about their motives, the extent of their tomfoolery, or what their internal policys or hoped for end result is.
The only thing we can be one hundred percent sure of is that they want us to be ineffective against them and to manage us, in order to get the best results for their cause and their country.