TigerHawk

1. Liveblogging. Numbered paragraphs indicate updates.

Watching Fox, which I know destroys my credibility with some part of our readership. But my default is MSNBC and I really can't deal with Ron Reagan tonight. Maybe later.

Bush campaign dude just said that Bush is running ahead of his 2000 results in key Florida precincts, and ahead of 2000 among Hispanics in Florida. Interesting if not rank spin.

Joe Lockhart seems to be arguing that the famous "10,000 lawyers" are not likely to be necessary. He said there have been very few reports of intimidation, and that all these sharks have acted as an effective deterrant. Or maybe the voter intimidation fears were just cooked up to motivate the Democratic base (I know, I know, there are all the snarky leaflets and rumors of arrest warrants and such, but it is all very much consistent with the American tradition).

2. Power Line says that there is no avalanche of first-time voters.

3. Susan Estrich is on Fox saying that the exit polls have to be completely wrong, or Bush loses. This according to her inside skinny.

4. Fox not willing to call Daschle/Thune or Salazar/Coors. Lots of polls closing right now (9:00), the big red states coming in on schedule. Florida looks strong for Bush, but if Kerry wins PA big you have to worry about Ohio too.

5. Will Collier thinks that Florida is looking very strong for Bush. Broward is mostly in, and Bush remains ahead. Meanwhile, Fox thinks Missouri, a must-win for Bush (are there any states that aren't "must-wins" for somebody?), is on the bubble. Listening to Fox, at least, I think the networks all think that Kerry has it in the bag based on exit polls, which Bill Kristol says "are usually right."

6. Fred Barnes is basicly saying that the Bush campaign has been "down in the dumps" all day because of the exit polls. Meanwhile, Megan reports on Instapundit that CNN is saying that the Colorado initiative to divide the electoral vote in that state is going down by a big margin.

7. NON-ELECTION UPDATE: According to Al-Jaz, Saddam's family has fired his lawyer. Heh. It's always a bad sign for the defense when it has to sack its lawyer.

8. Kristol is observing that Bush is running ahead of other Republicans on the ticket, state by state, including some of those that were seen running against him in the exit polls. Florida is half reported, and Bush is up 51.7% - 47.4%.

9. Fox just showed the Bush family assembled watching returns. Jeb looked stressed as hell. Can you blame him?

10. Florida is at 51.5%-47.6% for Bush with almost 66% in. As of 9:57 pm, no states have switched from pre-election projections (or, I believe, 2000 results). I increasingly think that it will be all about Ohio.

11. Switching to MSNBC. Just as they were saying that Florida was looking great for Kerry. So who the heck knows? Four more poll closings coming up in a minute, including the Hawkeye State. OK, here we are. Utah for Bush, but Iowa, Nevada and Montana not called at MSNBC.

12. Switching to CNN. Joe Lockhart is speaking, saying that he expects to win New Hampshire, and "very bullish" in Ohio. In the Buckeye State, supposed Democratic precincts came in at 115% of expected turnout, whereas Republican precincts are coming in at 94%. Sounds like a silly metric to me, but Lockhart seems to believe it. How much of this is just the "declare victory" strategy, though?

13. Florida watch: With 72.8% of the precincts in, it is still 51.2%-47.9% for Bush. Judy Woodruff is saying that there are 90,000 uncounted absentee ballots in Miami-Dade that won't be counted until Thursday, but Bush has a lead of almost 200,000 votes.

14. CNN calls Mizzou.

15. Troll the open comments thread at Atrios, you can tap into no small amount of lefty stress. They are stressing out over Florida. And they should be. Note, however, that I still think that Kerry will win with around 290 votes (round numbers, the Gore states plus Ohio and New Hampshire).

16. We're back to MSNBC. Scarborough is painting a picture of Bush victory in Florida. With 85% in and a 250,000 vote lead for Bush, Broward in and the Panhandle still to come, Scarborough, but not MSNBC, thinks that Florida is in the bag.

17. Every Democrat I know assumes that Jeb is going to "steal" Florida for Bush, so I hope he does a great job of it and Bush wins by a large margin there. That will be one stone passed. We will then bite nails over Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa. Switching to major networks. NBC. They're deconstructing Ohio chadology. Goddamn. Machines clogged with chads, dimped ballots. I want to shoot myself.

18. NBC reporting that the youth did not vote in any greater proportions than in 2000. And the exit polls show that the young at evenly split on the war, but nevertheless Kerry has an advantage of several points. So the missing youth vote remains, once again, missing, and the cell phone thing turned out to be nonsense.

19. OK, the "ice map" at "Democracy Plaza," or whatever they now call Rockefeller Center, is pretty cool.

20. NBC just called PA for Kerry, which is no great shock. Here comes Russert with his board: "Nothing has changed from 2000."

21. The commenters at Atrios continue to sweat. Hard to tell how many of them are Republican trolls.

22. I think Bush is going to lose New Hampshire, which will be a flip from 2000. But what the hell do I know. Michael Barone (we're back on Fox) has no clues. There are 60% in, so it will be tough for Bush to close his 4000 vote deficit. Kerry will win by a couple of thousand, I think. Bush is running well ahead of the exit polls, though, which has been true all night (apparently).

23. Greta on Fox is talking about the ACLU's lawsuit in Florida seeking to extend the date for the return of absentee ballots until November 12. Apparently there was a significant delay in the distribution of those ballots. ARRRGGHH!

24. Jeff Greenfield is virtually calling Florida. "The more you look at this, the more it looks exactly like people thought was going to happen." Still no moves off of 2000. Greenfield says if NH and NV go to Kerry, you have a tie at 269. Only the vestigial lawyer in me would be amused by that. There's a war on -- if this were 1996 I'd be bouncing in my chair over that prospect, but we can't afford that kind of paralysis just now. Now Nader is on CNN: "George Bush is just a big corporation disguised as a human being." Heh. I don't care who you are, that's funny.

25. Russert says that Bush has two or three paths to victory, but Kerry has only one, and it is through Ohio. I agree. Kerry must win Ohio unless Bush collapses in some surprising place. Karen Hughes is "feeling good," and says that Rove says that Columbus is running ahead for Bush. Mike McCurry says that Karen Hughes is way wrong, and calls Ohio for Kerry ("they are still voting in Columbus, and we are turning in extraordinary numbers from Democratic precincts").

26. David Adesnik (an Oxblogger) live-blogs from Charlottesville, just around the corner from my mom's apartment. I think Charlottesvillain, though, is in Germany right now. He's surrounded by rabid Kerry supporters, so I'll be checking over there to see if he comments on their morale.

27. Thune is up by 3000 votes, which is something in South Dakota. Daschle is on the ropes. Keep hope alive.

28. Back on Fox (which, by the way, is pointedly not calling Florida even though "other networks" have). Karen Hughes says Florida is in the bag. Hughes says Ohio is close, but that "Bush is outperforming in every county" over internal expectations. She is probably spinning, but that sounds pretty good. If, heaven forfend, Bush loses Ohio, she thinks Wisconsin is Bush's best bet for alternative salvation. Hughes says the President "is feeling great right now," better than his stoicism after the exit polls.

29. I've been negative on Iowa for Bush, but a smart guy I know says it will go for Bush. Polk County (Des Moines) is in (according to my source), and Kerry's lead is not strong enough. That's the theory anyway. He also says that Kerry will win Ohio (bad), but his Iowa expertise exceeds his Ohio expertise, in my humble opinion.

Oh, God. Ron Reagan is going on about manliness, and picking a fight with Ron Silver. I am fleeing from MSNBC screaming.

30. OK, still here. Tucker Eskew on MSNBC, which has just called Colorado for Bush. Eskew is pretty upbeat. Eskew says Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico are still very much in play for Bush. Various Iowans are emailing me that northwest Iowa will come in for Bush and push the Hawkeye state over the top.

31. At NBC, Brokaw and Russert are deconstructing Ohio, where apparently some people waited ten hours to vote. Even the presidency of the United States isn't worth that. Meanwhile, from another Iowan: "Storm Lake isn't as conservative as it used to be, but Cherokee and Spencer and Emmetsburg -- basically the Lakes Conference -- is more like Nebraska than Iowa politically." The implication that the late-to-report northwestern part of the state will push it to Bush.

32. They're in tough shape over at Atrios: "I hope every 18-29 kid that did not vote gets drafted to Iraq soon."

33. Fox called Ohio for Bush. Oops! They did it again! Brit Hume just said that "Ohio was forecast to be the Florida of 2004." Well, it certainly is if Fox has called it at this point. Although Hume says that there is only a one in 300 chance that they are wrong on Ohio. Hope their statistician is good. New Mexico looks like it is going to go to Bush too. With Alaska, that's all she wrote. And I think Bush may win the Hawkeyes and or the Cheeseheads, too.

34. Drudge is calling it for Bush (FWIW). I think he is going to win Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada, all but off-setting the loss of New Hampshire. There are going to be a lot of people that will have to make good on their pledge to "leave the country."

Separately, Australia's Prime Minister John Howard must be very happy tonight. Otherwise, he'd be hanging out there.

35. Andrew Sullivan sounds the right note, even if I disagreed with his vote:

President Bush is narrowly re-elected. It was a wild day with the biggest black eyes for exit pollsters. I wanted Kerry to win. I believed he'd be more able to unite the country at home, more fiscally conservative, more socially inclusive, and better able to rally the world in a more focused war on terror. But a slim majority of Americans disagreed. And I'm a big believer in the deep wisdom of the American people. They voted in huge numbers, and they made a judgment. Not a huge and decisive victory by any means. But at least a victory that is unlikely to be challenged. The president and his aides deserve congratulations. And so, I think, does Senator Kerry, whose campaign exceeded the low expectations of many of us.

FOR NOW: But the most fundamental fact of this campaign - and one of the reasons it has been so bitter - is that we are at war. Our opponents at home are not our enemies. The real enemy is the Jihadist terror network that, even now, is murdering innocents and coalition soldiers in Iraq. Our job now - all of us - is to support this president in that war, to back those troops, and to pray for victory. We saw yesterday, in the cold-blooded murder of a Dutch film-maker for his open criticism of Islamist misogyny, that the enemy is still at large; and aiming directly at our freedoms and security. In Fallujah, our troops are poised for a vital battle against terrorists and theocrats intent on derailing a free future for Iraq. Democracy is on the line there and throughout the world. I've been more than a little frustrated by the president's handling of this war in the past year; but we have to draw a line under that now. The past is the past. And George W. Bush is our president. He deserves a fresh start, a chance to prove himself again, and the constructive criticism of those of us who decided to back his opponent. He needs our prayers and our support for the enormous tasks still ahead of him. He has mine. Unequivocally.

I have to fly to Europe tomorrow, so I'm going to pack it in soon. Maybe one or two posts -- I'd love to see Iowa come in for Bush.

36. Watching MSNBC now. Kerry is apparently holding on and not willing to concede, thinking that Ohio could turn it around. Perhaps we will see the litigation strategy roll out, perhaps not. But Scarborough thinks that this is not 2000 redux, that Cleveland did not come in the way Kerry had hoped, and that the Buckeye State has and will definitively go for Bush. Meanwhile, Bush is ahead by 6000 in Iowa, and the lead is growing.

37. Goddamn. John Kerry is going to unleash the lawyers. It is going to be very ugly. He is going to burn down the credibility of our process even if Bush wins Ohio by tens of thousands of votes. It makes me sick, and it will be a hideous lesson to everybody -- mostly Democrats -- who shamefully believe that litigation is but politics by other means.