Thursday, September 09, 2004
Is New Jersey the next battleground state?
Not likely, but the race is closer here than can be comfortable for the Kerry campaign. In a Star-Ledger poll conducted over Labor Day weekend, Kerry's lead shrank to four points from the 20 points that prevailed after the Democratic convention at the end of July.
Among the cognoscenti, polls taken over Labor Day are less reliable than polls taken later in September. Why this should be I don't know -- perhaps it is harder to get a reliable sample with so many people on the road. Nonetheless, the Bush bounce in the Garden State is considerable.
Bizarrely, the article makes no mention of the McGreevey "resignation" as a factor, and attributes the whole surge to the RNC. While I'm sure the omission is intentional, I'm not sure it is good reporting. The McGreevey scandal reminded everybody that the Democrats have been running this state and doing a very poor job of it.
Among the cognoscenti, polls taken over Labor Day are less reliable than polls taken later in September. Why this should be I don't know -- perhaps it is harder to get a reliable sample with so many people on the road. Nonetheless, the Bush bounce in the Garden State is considerable.
Bizarrely, the article makes no mention of the McGreevey "resignation" as a factor, and attributes the whole surge to the RNC. While I'm sure the omission is intentional, I'm not sure it is good reporting. The McGreevey scandal reminded everybody that the Democrats have been running this state and doing a very poor job of it.
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