Wednesday, May 02, 2012
Differences of opinion make markets -- in every trade, one party is wrong. But this prediction from early 2007 completely redefines the meaning of "wrong."
Note that this is all a "process" rather than product assessment. He notes the product is clever (and unique) but can't get past the corporate dealmaking level.
He completely forgot the mobile phones are a true consumer market.
" . . . in every trade, one party is wrong" Not necessarily.
For instance: Jones, 75, sells Smith, 25, his shares in a long-term growth stock. Both may be right.
Or, Farmer Jones sells options on his crop to speculator Smith, in order to insure against a sharp drop in price. Again, both may be right.
And it is easy to think of other examples -- if you try.
The following goes to an interview with David Stockman, who was Reagan's budget director, and before that a Congressman from Michigan.
It's worth reading the whole thing. Stockman says a lot of the things I've been saying here for a long time, but he goes further to prognosticate about what will happen after the 2012 election. I also think that come January 2013 it'll get interesting -- runaway trains have already left their stations. You'd think that Romney would be better able to deal and I hope that's true, but it may not.
I'm not as pessimistic as Stockman. What's been propping us up is that most of the rest of the world sucks more. I don't see that changing.