Wednesday, October 08, 2008
In the great tradition of Louis Rukeyser (without whom this blog would not exist), it is time for predictions that cannot be altered. In the comments, predict the month in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottoms (e.g., February 2009), and the level at which it bottoms (e.g., 8500). My guess: March 2009, 6800.
Note that I have no special knowledge, and am worse than a dartboard at forecasting these things.
Impale your stake in the comments section.
Obama wins the election. The worst fears of Wall Street affirmed, the Dow steadily drops throughout the course of his presidency. How far depends on the extent and depth of his infallibility. I'll venture to say that's worth an additional negative five thousand points.
4,250 October 2012
Obama wins, takes office in January.
a day later the LSM starts reporting the good economic news and ignores or explains away as leftovers of the Bush years all the bad news.
So the market bottom will be Inauguration-plus-one-business-day, probably around 6000.
Larry, you got that right. Instead of all the good economic news having that big "but" after it, telling us that it's not really good news, once Obama is elected, bad news will now have a "but" after it, telling us it's really good news.
Anyway, bottom at 8100 in November.
Sirius - you are falling into the old school conventional wisdom that Wall Street is a Republican bastion. Look up (on opensecrets, for example) how much money the employees of Wall Street firms gave to Obama vs. McCain. Hint: many are NYC residents.
I like Larry's timing.
I'll say Monday, January 19, 2009, Dow close of 6,969 (69 has always been a special number for me). It goes up from there following Obama's investiture, er, inauguration.
Why wouldn't this blog exist without Louis Rukeyser? Did the TH father invest using gems of wisdom from the old Wall Street Week show on PBS?
Wall Street loves the Dems for allowing and encouraging them to raid every pork barrel without scrutiny, until the barrel explodes. Then they have to live on their stolen goods. Nice job Paulson and Frank. Unfortunate for those paying their fixed rate mortgage or owning retirement securities.
Betting on bottom in January (November Republican retirees dump stocks, December the press can't help but bewail the Oncoming Disastrous Christmas Holiday, January the Crowning of the King becomes the news headline of the day and investors get out of the MSM fueled panic mode they have been running) Probably 8000 or so.
While everyone focuses the blame on the asset swap, 'err, Bailout, the real reason the markets continue tanking is the markets anticipate a Barry H. Obama White House, and a Demo House and Senate.
DJIA 7559, November 1st, 2008.
TOMORROW! Both indices drop to ZERO!!!11!!1!!!!111!!!!OMG!OMG!!OMG!!!
Just kidding. ;) My "real" prediction is November 3, 2008 at 6400.
Seriously though, what would happen if the DJIA really did drop to absolute zero? Is it possible for the DJIA to go negative?
I am an optimist at heart so I envision a steady, (but slowing) downward saw tooth to continue through May 2009, bottoming with only another 10-12% getting flushed out... final number 8000.
Just wait til all those refund checks start getting spent!
The bailout will eventually constrain the fall but over the longterm will serve to constrain the recovery as well. I expect to see a bottom between 7500 and 8000 sometime in Dec. However, don't look for a Bull Market for 3 - 6 years later, depending on how quickly socialist tendencies are seen for what they are and conservatives (hopefully real conservatives - not republicans) take back the Congress. Remember how fiscally conservative the Clinton administration became after 1994.
You poor, helpless, fools, no one here can know the bottom because no one knows what day I'll fold under the pressure and decide to dump my stocks.
The day I dump my stocks, they'll go straight up.
I am in control. You are powerless.