Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Anthony Watts continues to report on the sudden and dramatic global cooling in January, now confirmed by various different metrics. The data really are startling:
The ∆T for the past 12 months is 0.595°C which is in line with other respected global temperature metrics that I have reported on in the past two weeks. RSS, UAH, and GISS global temperature sets all show sharp drops in the last year. We are in an extended solar minimum, we have a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to a cold state, and we are seeing arctic ice extents setting new records and rebounding from the summer melt. While weather is defined as such variability, the fact that so many things are in agreement on a global scale in such a short time span of one year should give us all pause for consideration.
And then there is this:
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January was the 31st warmest on record, 0.32°F/0.18°C above the 20th century mean. Temperatures were colder than average across large parts of central and southern Asia. The January global land surface average was below the 20th century mean (-0.02°F/-0.01°C) for the first time since 1982. (emphasis added)
Flip side: Climate models are predicting that 2008 will begin on the cool side.
Of course one of the immediate effects of global warming is global cooling. Especially when there is a little bump in the complex CO2/temperature graph presented by Nobel winner, world renowned scientist Algore in his documentary "An inconvenient truth". The bump also indicates it may be another 1000 years before GW resumes destroying the universe.
Make no mistake, this is anthropogenic GW, and Bush/Cheney/Rove/Halliburton are the architects. Just a bump in the road. But a good time to stock up on carbon offsets.
@ BOP, some other thread posters:
Damn those scientists throughout the world, foreign governments, and American intelligentsia traitors. How dare they take part in a worldwide conspiracy to collect and analyze data in a systematic fashion, rather than following their gut intuition about what is or isn't possible. Judging arguments on their merits rather than on their articulators.
Seriously though, model average global temperature by a normal distribution (or whatever distribution you like) and observe that tails to this distribution exist. Further, read the actual scientific research on AGW (I think JSTOR can help you) and consider any other the arguments that warming might be a year-upon-year trend, not easily disproved with a singular counterexample. (Jist of that argument: assume otherwise, that single counterexamples do matter. Then the theory your testing is formed by far more of those counterexamples. QED.) Start talking about (or even in the realm of) scientific methodology or experiments and the gap between the camps will get much smaller really fast.
@ TH: Fair enough, nice catch on the data.
Mt. Pinatubo probably slowed it down a little. So we lucked out once. Maybe this is another opportunity to get our act together. The Maunder Minimum probably caused a cold spell. This could be another period of diminished sunspots. Unfortunately, if solar irradiance is reduced, it might also effect agricultural production.
At any rate, it's a good time to invoke an expert on the subject.
Robert Frost (1874–1963). Miscellaneous Poems to 1920.
Fire and Ice
SOME say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.