TigerHawk (ti*ger*hawk): n. 1. The title of this blog and the nom de plume of its founding blogger; 2. A deep bow to the Princeton Tigers and the Iowa Hawkeyes; 3. The nickname for Iowa's Hawkeye logo. Posts include thoughts of the day on international affairs, politics, things that strike us as hilarious and personal observations. The opinions we express are our own, and not those of each other, our employers, our relatives, our dead ancestors, or unrelated people of similar ethnicity.
Wednesday, May 02, 2012
Spectacularly wrong
Differences of opinion make markets -- in every trade, one party is wrong. But this prediction from early 2007 completely redefines the meaning of "wrong."
Note that this is all a "process" rather than product assessment. He notes the product is clever (and unique) but can't get past the corporate dealmaking level.
He completely forgot the mobile phones are a true consumer market.
It's worth reading the whole thing. Stockman says a lot of the things I've been saying here for a long time, but he goes further to prognosticate about what will happen after the 2012 election. I also think that come January 2013 it'll get interesting -- runaway trains have already left their stations. You'd think that Romney would be better able to deal and I hope that's true, but it may not.
I'm not as pessimistic as Stockman. What's been propping us up is that most of the rest of the world sucks more. I don't see that changing.
Note that this is all a "process" rather than product assessment. He notes the product is clever (and unique) but can't get past the corporate dealmaking level.
ReplyDeleteHe completely forgot the mobile phones are a true consumer market.
Maybe he can get a job finding "investments" for Obama.
ReplyDelete" . . . in every trade, one party is wrong" Not necessarily.
ReplyDeleteFor instance: Jones, 75, sells Smith, 25, his shares in a long-term growth stock. Both may be right.
Or, Farmer Jones sells options on his crop to speculator Smith, in order to insure against a sharp drop in price. Again, both may be right.
And it is easy to think of other examples -- if you try.
The following goes to an interview with David Stockman, who was Reagan's budget director, and before that a Congressman from Michigan.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-emperor-naked
It's worth reading the whole thing. Stockman says a lot of the things I've been saying here for a long time, but he goes further to prognosticate about what will happen after the 2012 election. I also think that come January 2013 it'll get interesting -- runaway trains have already left their stations. You'd think that Romney would be better able to deal and I hope that's true, but it may not.
I'm not as pessimistic as Stockman. What's been propping us up is that most of the rest of the world sucks more. I don't see that changing.